Prediction Market Movers

Biggest probability moves

The largest absolute changes in market-implied probability over the last 24 hours, either direction — points, not percent.

Biggest upward moves

What suddenly became more likely — the largest positive probability-point changes. A move is a repricing, not a recommendation.

Biggest downward moves

What suddenly became less likely — the largest negative changes. Down is information, not bad news.

Biggest moves by category

Each card shows how many of the category's markets are moving ≥1 point and its single largest move — no blended category score.

Biggest moves by venue

The two venues in depth: Polymarket vs Kalshi.

Most active markets today

A different question from movement: not “what changed?” but “where is the money trading right now?” — ranked by 24-hour traded volume. A big move on a thin market and a small move on a deep one are different facts; the volume figures on every card are there so you can tell them apart.

New markets on the move

Markets that opened within the last week and are already moving a point or more — what just started moving, as opposed to what has moved the most.

See everything that just appeared — new markets today and this week →

All moving markets

Every open market moving at least one probability point in the last 24 hours, biggest move first. The table lists the top 150 of 413; the rest are one click away on their category pages.

Why watch prediction market moves?

A market sitting at 80% is not automatically more interesting than one at 30% — what makes a market worth a look is usually that its price just changed. Prediction markets reprice continuously as traders react to news, polls, filings and each other, so a large 24-hour move is the market's own signal that something happened, or that the crowd now reads the same facts differently. The markets hub answers "what prediction markets exist?"; this page answers "which of them are changing?"

A move is evidence of repricing, never a forecast: it does not make the outcome more likely to happen, it records that people with money at stake now price it differently. Whether a move deserves your attention also depends on context — how much traded behind it, how deep the market is, and when it resolves — which is why every card here carries volume and venue alongside the move. Movement is one axis; time is the other — markets ending soon lists what is about to be decided, however quiet the price.

How the movers are ranked

One rule, applied everywhere on this page: markets are ranked by the absolute change in market-implied probability over the last 24 hours, measured in probability points. A market that went from 42% to 57% moved +15 points and outranks one that went from 1% to 4%, even though the second tripled in relative terms. "Moving" means a change of at least one probability point — below that is the ordinary breathing of a liquid market. Volume and liquidity are shown as context but never alter the ranking.

Only open markets with a valid 24-hour comparison are ranked: a market that resolved, or that opened too recently to have a day-old baseline, is left out rather than guessed at. The same 15-minute pipeline that redraws the live board recomputes this page, so the two never disagree. Looking for more than movement? The board's Heating-up view ranks by the opportunity score, which blends unusual trading pace with movement.

Points, not percent

A move from 45% to 60% is +15 percentage points — not "+33%". Relative percentages flatter tiny markets: 1% to 2% is "+100%" while barely changing what the market believes. Probability points measure the thing that actually matters here — how far the market's answer moved — which is why every number on this page is written as +15 pts, never as a relative percentage.

Want the biggest moves sent to you?

Fresh scanner findings and major market updates post to the PredictionBubbles Telegram channel as each sweep sees them: t.me/predictionbubbles. On the site itself, every market page has a follow button for push alerts on 5+ point moves.

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