PredictionBubbles
Polymarket · Politics

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?

Yes is trading at 87.5% on Polymarket, up 1.0 points in the last 24 hours. $1.1M traded over the market’s life, $91K of it in the last day. It resolves on 14 August 2026, 7 days from now.

By volume it is number 475 of the 833 open politics markets on the board, and $91K of that traded in the last day.

Trade this on Polymarket ↗

Current odds

Yes87.5%
No12.5%

Prices are the market’s implied probability: a contract at 62% costs 62 cents and pays $1 if it resolves true.

Price history

15 Jul18.9% – 99.1%7 Aug

Hourly samples for Yes. The live board draws every outcome and lets you switch the window.

Market detail

Lifetime volume
$1.1M
24h volume
$91K
24h move
+1.0 points
Liquidity
$56K
Open interest
—
Opened
15 July 2026
Resolves
14 August 2026
Venue
Polymarket · on-chain, Polygon

Where this price comes from

Polymarket is an on-chain venue settling in USDC on Polygon. The number above is the last traded price on this contract, pulled from the venue’s public API and refreshed every 15 minutes. This site takes no position and sets no price of its own.

To weigh it against the same question elsewhere, open the live board: it puts the busiest open Polymarket and Kalshi market side by side, sized by volume and colored by probability.

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