Sure Bets on Prediction Markets BETA
LIVE · a new sweep every 15 minutes · last sweep 2026-08-10T11:44:46Z · follow @predictionbubbl
Markets that are logically linked — the same question with a different deadline, or the same question on a different venue — should agree with each other. These are the places they currently don't, swept from every open Polymarket and Kalshi market above $5,000 volume.
These are 15-minute midpoints, not order books: an edge can shrink or vanish once real bids and asks are crossed, and thin markets move on a single order. Cross-venue pairs settle under each venue's own resolution rules, which can differ in ways that matter — read both before treating any gap as risk-free. This is not financial advice.
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New surebets and the sharpest odds moves go out on @predictionbubbl — follow for the pings, come back here for the depth and the hedges. Follow @predictionbubbl
Deadline inversions
"X by September" implies "X by December", so the shorter deadline should always be the cheaper YES. Here it isn't.
15.0pt edge
Every $1 pair returns $1 whichever way it resolves — the thinner book shows $173 resting, and that, not the edge, is what caps the size.
8.0pt edge
Every $1 pair returns $1 whichever way it resolves — if the books fill both legs at these midpoints.
8.0pt edge
Every $1 pair returns $1 whichever way it resolves — if the books fill both legs at these midpoints.
4.7pt edge
Every $1 pair returns $1 whichever way it resolves — the thinner book shows $4K resting, and that, not the edge, is what caps the size.
3.5pt edge
Every $1 pair returns $1 whichever way it resolves — the thinner book shows $12K resting, and that, not the edge, is what caps the size.
3.0pt edge
Every $1 pair returns $1 whichever way it resolves — if the books fill both legs at these midpoints.
3.0pt edge
Every $1 pair returns $1 whichever way it resolves — if the books fill both legs at these midpoints.
3.0pt edge
Every $1 pair returns $1 whichever way it resolves — if the books fill both legs at these midpoints.
3.0pt edge
Every $1 pair returns $1 whichever way it resolves — if the books fill both legs at these midpoints.
2.0pt edge
Every $1 pair returns $1 whichever way it resolves — if the books fill both legs at these midpoints.
2.0pt edge
Every $1 pair returns $1 whichever way it resolves — if the books fill both legs at these midpoints.
2.0pt edge
Every $1 pair returns $1 whichever way it resolves — if the books fill both legs at these midpoints.
Cross-venue gaps
The same question priced differently on Polymarket and Kalshi.
99.0pt gap
44.6pt gap
34.6pt gap
34.2pt gap
12.5pt gap
9.0pt gap
8.8pt gap
8.5pt gap
7.2pt gap
5.5pt gap
5.2pt gap
5.0pt gap
4.9pt gap
4.9pt gap
4.5pt gap
4.5pt gap
4.5pt gap
4.0pt gap
4.0pt gap
3.5pt gap
3.5pt gap
3.4pt gap
3.4pt gap
3.1pt gap
3.0pt gap
Find the gap yourself
This is the scanner's trick, done by hand — and it works on any topic the moment news breaks. Search a theme on the board in list view and read the 24h column: the short-dated markets have already moved while the long-dated ones are still catching up.
August 10, 2026, mid-story: the US–Iran 60-day talks market crashed 27 points and the August meeting markets fell double digits — while the ceasefire market ticked up and the long-dated blockade and invasion markets barely moved. Read together: the formal process was falling apart, and nobody expected the shooting to restart. Markets that price the same story hours apart are where the sure bets above come from.
Sure bets, explained
What is a sure bet on prediction markets?
Two markets that are logically linked — the same question with a longer deadline, or the same question on two venues — must agree on price. When they don't, buying both sides costs less than the guaranteed $1 payout, and the difference is profit whichever way the event resolves. Bookmakers call it arbitrage; this page calls it what bettors do: a sure bet.
How does PredictionBubbles find sure bets?
Every 15 minutes the scanner sweeps every open Polymarket and Kalshi market above $5,000 lifetime volume. It links markets that share a question but differ in deadline — "by September" implies "by December", so the shorter YES must be cheaper — and pairs near-identical questions across the two venues. Anything priced inconsistently lands here.
Why do sure bets disappear so quickly?
Because they are free money, and free money gets taken. A visible inversion invites the trade that closes it. The gaps that persist are usually in thin books, where the resting liquidity — shown on every ticket here — is too small to be worth a bigger trader's time.
If it's a sure bet, what's the catch?
Four things. The prices here are 15-minute midpoints, and crossing a real order book costs spread. Thin books cap how much can be bet. Cross-venue pairs settle under each venue's own resolution rules, which can differ in ways that matter. And the stake is locked until the market resolves. Sure describes the payout structure, not the execution — this is not financial advice.
How do I get alerted when a new sure bet appears?
Enable push alerts — a notification goes out when a sweep finds an inversion the previous one didn't have — or follow @predictionbubbl on X. The bell next to any leg additionally tracks that market's own price moves and news.
Sweep generated 2026-08-10T11:44:46Z · data refreshes every 15 minutes, this page rebuilds every half hour · market index · live board