Will Anthropic release next Mythos-Class model before Oct 1, 2026?
Before Oct 1, 2026 — market-implied probability
66.0%▲ +1.0 points in 24h
No 34.0%
$29Klifetime volume
$20024h volume
$9Kopen interest
Before Oct 1, 2026 is trading at 66.0% on Kalshi, up 1.0 points in the last 24 hours. $29K traded over the market’s life, $200 of it in the last day. It resolves on 1 October 2026, 50 days from now.
By volume it is number 36 of the 37 open tech markets on the board, and $200 of that traded in the last day.
Current odds
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 66.0% | |
|---|---|---|
| No | 34.0% |
Prices are the market’s implied probability: a contract at 62% costs 62 cents and pays $1 if it resolves true.
Price history
Hourly samples for Yes. The live board draws every outcome and lets you switch the window.
Market activity
$29KLifetime volume
traded over the market's life.
$20024h volume
traded in the last day.
$9KOpen interest
still committed in open positions.
Where the venue does not publish a figure, it is left out rather than shown as zero.
Market timeline
6 July 2026opened
1 October 2026resolves
50 days remaining — recalculated on every 15-minute rebuild.
What does 66.0% mean?
The market is currently pricing the Before Oct 1, 2026 outcome at about 66.0%: a contract that pays $1 if the market resolves that way costs roughly 66.0% of its payout to buy. That number is the market-implied probability — the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, not a forecast by PredictionBubbles.
When the price moves, the market has repriced the question — the 24-hour figure on this page is that move in probability points, not percent. Markets can be early, late or wrong; what keeps the number honest is that anyone who disagrees can trade against it.
Where this price comes from
- Source
- Kalshi
- Type
- CFTC-regulated, US
- Updated
- every 15 minutes
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange settling in dollars. The number above is the last traded price on this contract, pulled from the venue’s public API and refreshed every 15 minutes. This site takes no position and sets no price of its own.
To weigh it against the same question elsewhere, open the live board: it puts the busiest open Polymarket and Kalshi market side by side, sized by volume and colored by probability.