Will Manon leave Katseye before Jan 1, 2027?
Before 2027 — market-implied probability
70.0%▲ +4.0 points in 24h
No 30.0%
$26Klifetime volume
$42424h volume
$12Kopen interest
Before 2027 is trading at 70.0% on Kalshi, up 4.0 points in the last 24 hours. $26K traded over the market’s life, $424 of it in the last day. It resolves on 1 January 2027, 142 days from now.
By volume it is number 38 of the 42 open culture markets on the board, and $424 of that traded in the last day.
Current odds
| Before 2027 | 70.0% | |
|---|---|---|
| No | 30.0% |
Prices are the market’s implied probability: a contract at 62% costs 62 cents and pays $1 if it resolves true.
Price history
Hourly samples for Yes. The live board draws every outcome and lets you switch the window.
Market activity
$26KLifetime volume
traded over the market's life.
$42424h volume
traded in the last day.
$12KOpen interest
still committed in open positions.
Where the venue does not publish a figure, it is left out rather than shown as zero.
Market timeline
15 April 2026opened
1 January 2027resolves
142 days remaining — recalculated on every 15-minute rebuild.
What does 70.0% mean?
The market is currently pricing the Before 2027 outcome at about 70.0%: a contract that pays $1 if the market resolves that way costs roughly 70.0% of its payout to buy. That number is the market-implied probability — the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, not a forecast by PredictionBubbles.
When the price moves, the market has repriced the question — the 24-hour figure on this page is that move in probability points, not percent. Markets can be early, late or wrong; what keeps the number honest is that anyone who disagrees can trade against it.
Where this price comes from
- Source
- Kalshi
- Type
- CFTC-regulated, US
- Updated
- every 15 minutes
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange settling in dollars. The number above is the last traded price on this contract, pulled from the venue’s public API and refreshed every 15 minutes. This site takes no position and sets no price of its own.
To weigh it against the same question elsewhere, open the live board: it puts the busiest open Polymarket and Kalshi market side by side, sized by volume and colored by probability.