PredictionBubbles
Kalshi · Politics

Will the number of unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS); S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance; Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix; labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50%; CPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) YoY falls below 0% in any monthly release during before July 2028 be above 2? — Yes

Yes is trading at 21.0% on Kalshi. $25.9M traded over the market’s life, $10 of it in the last day. It resolves on 1 July 2028, 693 days from now.

By volume it is number 54 of the 830 open politics markets on the board, and $10 of that traded in the last day.

Trade this on Kalshi ↗

Current odds

Yes21.0%
No79.0%

Prices are the market’s implied probability: a contract at 62% costs 62 cents and pays $1 if it resolves true.

Market detail

Lifetime volume
$25.9M
24h volume
$10
24h move
0.0 points
Liquidity
—
Open interest
$176K
Opened
25 February 2026
Resolves
1 July 2028
Venue
Kalshi · CFTC-regulated, US

Where this price comes from

Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange settling in dollars. The number above is the last traded price on this contract, pulled from the venue’s public API and refreshed every 15 minutes. This site takes no position and sets no price of its own.

To weigh it against the same question elsewhere, open the live board: it puts the busiest open Polymarket and Kalshi market side by side, sized by volume and colored by probability.

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