Will Trump recognize Somaliland? — Before Jan 20, 2029
Before Jan 20, 2029 — market-implied probability
8.6%▼ -5.4 points in 24h
No 91.4%
$29Klifetime volume
$124h volume
$9Kopen interest
Before Jan 20, 2029 is trading at 8.6% on Kalshi, down 5.4 points in the last 24 hours. $29K traded over the market’s life, $1 of it in the last day. It runs until 20 January 2029.
By volume it is number 900 of the 914 open politics markets on the board, and $1 of that traded in the last day.
Current odds
| Before Jan 20, 2029 | 8.6% | |
|---|---|---|
| No | 91.4% |
Prices are the market’s implied probability: a contract at 62% costs 62 cents and pays $1 if it resolves true.
Price history
Hourly samples for Yes. The live board draws every outcome and lets you switch the window.
Market activity
$29KLifetime volume
traded over the market's life.
$124h volume
traded in the last day.
$9KOpen interest
still committed in open positions.
Where the venue does not publish a figure, it is left out rather than shown as zero.
Market timeline
18 December 2024opened
20 January 2029resolves
What does 8.6% mean?
The market is currently pricing the Before Jan 20, 2029 outcome at about 8.6%: a contract that pays $1 if the market resolves that way costs roughly 8.6% of its payout to buy. That number is the market-implied probability — the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, not a forecast by PredictionBubbles.
When the price moves, the market has repriced the question — the 24-hour figure on this page is that move in probability points, not percent. Markets can be early, late or wrong; what keeps the number honest is that anyone who disagrees can trade against it.
Where this price comes from
- Source
- Kalshi
- Type
- CFTC-regulated, US
- Updated
- every 15 minutes
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange settling in dollars. The number above is the last traded price on this contract, pulled from the venue’s public API and refreshed every 15 minutes. This site takes no position and sets no price of its own.
To weigh it against the same question elsewhere, open the live board: it puts the busiest open Polymarket and Kalshi market side by side, sized by volume and colored by probability.