PredictionBubbles

Climate prediction markets

3 open climate markets across Polymarket and Kalshi, $24.1M traded in total. Sorted by volume; the odds column is the implied probability of the first outcome.

MarketOdds24h VolumeVenue
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?4.0%+0.2 points$17.6MPolymarket
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?5.9%+0.2 points$6.5MPolymarket
Will the world pass 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels before 2050?77.0%0.0 points$16KKalshi

All of them at once: the live board draws every market as a bubble — size is volume, colour is probability.