Will Darline Graham finish 1st in the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?
Darline Graham — market-implied probability
99.0%▲ +39.0 points in 24h
No 1.0%
$1.0Mlifetime volume
$811K24h volume
$670Kopen interest
Darline Graham is trading at 99.0% on Kalshi, up 39.0 points in the last 24 hours. $1.0M traded over the market’s life, $811K of it in the last day. It resolves on 11 August 2027, 364 days from now.
By volume it is number 493 of the 919 open politics markets on the board, and $811K of that traded in the last day.
Current odds
| Darline Graham | 99.0% | |
|---|---|---|
| No | 1.0% |
Prices are the market’s implied probability: a contract at 62% costs 62 cents and pays $1 if it resolves true.
Price history
Hourly samples for Yes. The live board draws every outcome and lets you switch the window.
Market activity
$1.0MLifetime volume
traded over the market's life.
$811K24h volume
traded in the last day.
$670KOpen interest
still committed in open positions.
Where the venue does not publish a figure, it is left out rather than shown as zero.
Market timeline
2 August 2026opened
11 August 2027resolves
364 days remaining — recalculated on every 15-minute rebuild.
What does 99.0% mean?
The market is currently pricing the Darline Graham outcome at about 99.0%: a contract that pays $1 if the market resolves that way costs roughly 99.0% of its payout to buy. That number is the market-implied probability — the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, not a forecast by PredictionBubbles.
When the price moves, the market has repriced the question — the 24-hour figure on this page is that move in probability points, not percent. Markets can be early, late or wrong; what keeps the number honest is that anyone who disagrees can trade against it.
Where this price comes from
- Source
- Kalshi
- Type
- CFTC-regulated, US
- Updated
- every 15 minutes
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange settling in dollars. The number above is the last traded price on this contract, pulled from the venue’s public API and refreshed every 15 minutes. This site takes no position and sets no price of its own.
To weigh it against the same question elsewhere, open the live board: it puts the busiest open Polymarket and Kalshi market side by side, sized by volume and colored by probability.