Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?
Yes — market-implied probability
43.0%▲ +3.5 points in 24h
No 57.0%
$118Klifetime volume
$15K24h volume
$29Kliquidity
Yes is trading at 43.0% on Polymarket, up 3.5 points in the last 24 hours. $118K traded over the market’s life, $15K of it in the last day. It resolves on 31 August 2026, 20 days from now.
By volume it is number 36 of the 74 open culture markets on the board, and $15K of that traded in the last day.
Current odds
| Yes | 43.0% | |
|---|---|---|
| No | 57.0% |
Prices are the market’s implied probability: a contract at 62% costs 62 cents and pays $1 if it resolves true.
Price history
Hourly samples for Yes. The live board draws every outcome and lets you switch the window.
Market activity
$118KLifetime volume
traded over the market's life.
$15K24h volume
traded in the last day.
$29KLiquidity
resting on the order book.
Where the venue does not publish a figure, it is left out rather than shown as zero.
Market timeline
17 July 2026opened
31 August 2026resolves
20 days remaining — recalculated on every 15-minute rebuild.
What does 43.0% mean?
The market is currently pricing the Yes outcome at about 43.0%: a contract that pays $1 if the market resolves that way costs roughly 43.0% of its payout to buy. That number is the market-implied probability — the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, not a forecast by PredictionBubbles.
When the price moves, the market has repriced the question — the 24-hour figure on this page is that move in probability points, not percent. Markets can be early, late or wrong; what keeps the number honest is that anyone who disagrees can trade against it.
Where this price comes from
- Source
- Polymarket
- Type
- on-chain, Polygon
- Updated
- every 15 minutes
Polymarket is an on-chain venue settling in USDC on Polygon. The number above is the last traded price on this contract, pulled from the venue’s public API and refreshed every 15 minutes. This site takes no position and sets no price of its own.
To weigh it against the same question elsewhere, open the live board: it puts the busiest open Polymarket and Kalshi market side by side, sized by volume and colored by probability.