Iran full airspace closure by December 31?
Yes — market-implied probability
30.0%▼ -0.5 points in 24h
No 70.0%
$122Klifetime volume
$11K24h volume
$16Kliquidity
Yes is trading at 30.0% on Polymarket, down 0.5 points in the last 24 hours. $122K traded over the market’s life, $11K of it in the last day. It resolves on 31 December 2026, 139 days from now.
By volume it is number 37 of the 44 open other markets on the board, and $11K of that traded in the last day.
Current odds
| Yes | 30.0% | |
|---|---|---|
| No | 70.0% |
Prices are the market’s implied probability: a contract at 62% costs 62 cents and pays $1 if it resolves true.
Price history
Yes moved from 58.5% to 31.0% over the 14 days charted — 27.5 points lower, ranging between 27.5% and 65.5% on the way.
| Window open | 58.5% |
|---|---|
| Latest sample | 31.0% |
| Change over window | -27.5 points |
| Window high | 65.5% |
| Window low | 27.5% |
| Samples | 180, about every 2 hours |
Read off the samples the line is drawn from. A price moved; PredictionBubbles reports the move and does not determine what caused it. Points, not percent — a change from 20% to 25% is five points.
Sampled for Yes. The live board draws every outcome and lets you switch the window.
Market activity
$122KLifetime volume
traded over the market's life.
$11K24h volume
traded in the last day.
$16KLiquidity
resting on the order book.
Where the venue does not publish a figure, it is left out rather than shown as zero.
Market timeline
opened
resolves
139 days remaining — recalculated on every 15-minute rebuild.
What does 30.0% mean?
The market is currently pricing the Yes outcome at about 30.0%: a contract that pays $1 if the market resolves that way costs roughly 30.0% of its payout to buy. That number is the market-implied probability — the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, not a forecast by PredictionBubbles.
When the price moves, the market has repriced the question — the 24-hour figure on this page is that move in probability points, not percent. Markets can be early, late or wrong; what keeps the number honest is that anyone who disagrees can trade against it.
Where this price comes from
- Source
- Polymarket
- Type
- on-chain, Polygon
- Updated
- every 15 minutes
- Prices read
Polymarket is an on-chain venue settling in USDC on Polygon. The number above is the last traded price on this contract, pulled from the venue’s public API and refreshed every 15 minutes. This site takes no position and sets no price of its own.
To weigh it against the same question elsewhere, open the live board: it puts the busiest open Polymarket and Kalshi market side by side, sized by volume and colored by probability.
More Other markets
More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025? — Yes
91.7%implied probability 0.0 points in 24h
$31.4M traded · $168K open interest · Kalshi · resolves
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their September 2026 meeting?
73.0%implied probability +4.0 points in 24h
$3.8M traded · $2.9M open interest · Kalshi · resolves
Will there be a recession in 2026? — Starts
7.0%implied probability 0.0 points in 24h
$3.3M traded · $888K open interest · Kalshi · resolves
Will at least 50% of scheduled passenger and cargo flights at JFK be cancelled October 21, 2026?
2.7%implied probability +1.2 points in 24h
$3.0M traded · $3.0M open interest · Kalshi · resolves
The biggest other markets on the board by traded volume — browsing rather than a claim that they bear on this question. All other markets → · See this market on the live board → · Markets moving now →