Iran full airspace closure by August 15?
Yes is trading at 5.0% on Polymarket, down 1.5 points in the last 24 hours. $555K traded over the market’s life, $22K of it in the last day. It resolves on 15 August 2026, 8 days from now.
By volume it is number 26 of the 45 open other markets on the board, and $22K of that traded in the last day.
Trade this on Polymarket ↗Current odds
| Yes | 5.0% | |
|---|---|---|
| No | 95.0% |
Prices are the market’s implied probability: a contract at 62% costs 62 cents and pays $1 if it resolves true.
Price history
Hourly samples for Yes. The live board draws every outcome and lets you switch the window.
Market detail
- Lifetime volume
- $555K
- 24h volume
- $22K
- 24h move
- -1.5 points
- Liquidity
- $18K
- Open interest
- —
- Opened
- 18 July 2026
- Resolves
- 15 August 2026
- Venue
- Polymarket · on-chain, Polygon
Where this price comes from
Polymarket is an on-chain venue settling in USDC on Polygon. The number above is the last traded price on this contract, pulled from the venue’s public API and refreshed every 15 minutes. This site takes no position and sets no price of its own.
To weigh it against the same question elsewhere, open the live board: it puts the busiest open Polymarket and Kalshi market side by side, sized by volume and colored by probability.
More Other markets
- More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025? — Yes91.0% · Kalshi · $31.4M
- Will there be a recession in 2026? — Starts5.0% · Kalshi · $3.2M
- Will at least 50% of scheduled passenger and cargo flights at JFK be cancelled October 21, 2026?1.3% · Kalshi · $3.0M
- Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?2.6% · Polymarket · $2.8M
- Will the Fed cut rates 0 times? — Exactly 0 cuts86.7% · Kalshi · $2.1M
- Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by December 31, 2026? — Before 202754.0% · Kalshi · $2.1M
- Will Paramount's takeover of Warner Brothers succeed Before July 2027?67.0% · Kalshi · $1.7M
- Will Netflix's takeover of Warner Brothers succeed Before July 2027?4.0% · Kalshi · $1.5M