Will there be a recession in 2026? — Starts
Starts is trading at 5.0% on Kalshi, down 1.0 points in the last 24 hours. $3.2M traded over the market’s life, $11K of it in the last day. It resolves on 31 January 2027, 176 days from now.
By volume it is the second-largest of the 45 open other markets on the board, and $11K of that traded in the last day.
Trade this on Kalshi ↗Current odds
| Starts | 5.0% | |
|---|---|---|
| No | 95.0% |
Prices are the market’s implied probability: a contract at 62% costs 62 cents and pays $1 if it resolves true.
Market detail
- Lifetime volume
- $3.2M
- 24h volume
- $11K
- 24h move
- -1.0 points
- Liquidity
- —
- Open interest
- $896K
- Opened
- 14 July 2025
- Resolves
- 31 January 2027
- Venue
- Kalshi · CFTC-regulated, US
Where this price comes from
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange settling in dollars. The number above is the last traded price on this contract, pulled from the venue’s public API and refreshed every 15 minutes. This site takes no position and sets no price of its own.
To weigh it against the same question elsewhere, open the live board: it puts the busiest open Polymarket and Kalshi market side by side, sized by volume and colored by probability.
More Other markets
- More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025? — Yes91.0% · Kalshi · $31.4M
- Will at least 50% of scheduled passenger and cargo flights at JFK be cancelled October 21, 2026?1.3% · Kalshi · $3.0M
- Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?2.6% · Polymarket · $2.8M
- Will the Fed cut rates 0 times? — Exactly 0 cuts86.7% · Kalshi · $2.1M
- Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by December 31, 2026? — Before 202754.0% · Kalshi · $2.1M
- Will Paramount's takeover of Warner Brothers succeed Before July 2027?67.0% · Kalshi · $1.7M
- Will Netflix's takeover of Warner Brothers succeed Before July 2027?4.0% · Kalshi · $1.5M
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their September 2026 meeting?64.0% · Kalshi · $1.4M