Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 900m and 920m by August 31?
Yes — market-implied probability
0.1%
No 100.0%
$120Klifetime volume
$2224h volume
$69Kliquidity
Yes is trading at 0.1% on Polymarket. $120K traded over the market’s life, $22 of it in the last day. It was scheduled to resolve on 1 September 2026.
By volume it is number 44 of the 59 open culture markets on the board, and $22 of that traded in the last day.
Current odds
| Yes | 0.1% | |
|---|---|---|
| No | 100.0% |
Prices are the market’s implied probability: a contract at 62% costs 62 cents and pays $1 if it resolves true.
Price history
Yes moved from 43.5% to 25.0% over the 17 days charted — 18.5 points lower, ranging between 8.5% and 52.5% on the way.
| Window open | 43.5% |
|---|---|
| Latest sample | 25.0% |
| Change over window | -18.5 points |
| Window high | 52.5% |
| Window low | 8.5% |
| Samples | 180, about every 2 hours |
Read off the samples the line is drawn from. A price moved; PredictionBubbles reports the move and does not determine what caused it. Points, not percent. A change from 20% to 25% is five points.
Sampled for Yes. The live board draws every outcome and lets you switch the window.
Market activity
$120KLifetime volume
traded over the market's life.
$2224h volume
traded in the last day.
$69KLiquidity
resting on the order book.
Where the venue does not publish a figure, it is left out rather than shown as zero.
Market timeline
opened
resolves
What does 0.1% mean?
The market is currently pricing the Yes outcome at about 0.1%: a contract that pays $1 if the market resolves that way costs roughly 0.1% of its payout to buy. That number is the market-implied probability, the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, not a forecast by PredictionBubbles.
When the price moves, the market has repriced the question. The 24-hour figure on this page is that move in probability points, not percent. Markets can be early, late or wrong; what keeps the number honest is that anyone who disagrees can trade against it.
Where this price comes from
- Source
- Polymarket
- Type
- on-chain, Polygon
- Updated
- every 15 minutes
- Prices read
Polymarket is an on-chain venue settling in USDC on Polygon. The number above is the last traded price on this contract, pulled from the venue’s public API and refreshed every 15 minutes. This site takes no position and sets no price of its own.
To weigh it against the same question elsewhere, open the live board: it puts the busiest open Polymarket and Kalshi market side by side, sized by volume and colored by probability.
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