When will OpenAI IPO? — Before Dec 1, 2026
Before Dec 1, 2026 — market-implied probability
19.0%▲ +4.0 points in 24h
No 81.0%
$88Klifetime volume
$19124h volume
$21Kopen interest
Before Dec 1, 2026 is trading at 19.0% on Kalshi, up 4.0 points in the last 24 hours. $88K traded over the market’s life, $191 of it in the last day. It resolves on 1 December 2026, 103 days from now.
By volume it is number 42 of the 51 open other markets on the board, and $191 of that traded in the last day.
Current odds
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 19.0% | |
|---|---|---|
| No | 81.0% |
Prices are the market’s implied probability: a contract at 62% costs 62 cents and pays $1 if it resolves true.
Price history
Yes moved from 23.0% to 9.0% over the 291 days charted — 14.0 points lower, ranging between 9.0% and 93.0% on the way.
| Window open | 23.0% |
|---|---|
| Latest sample | 9.0% |
| Change over window | -14.0 points |
| Window high | 93.0% |
| Window low | 9.0% |
| Samples | 180, about every 2 days |
Read off the samples the line is drawn from. A price moved; PredictionBubbles reports the move and does not determine what caused it. Points, not percent. A change from 20% to 25% is five points.
Sampled for Yes. The live board draws every outcome and lets you switch the window.
Market activity
$88KLifetime volume
traded over the market's life.
$19124h volume
traded in the last day.
$21KOpen interest
still committed in open positions.
Where the venue does not publish a figure, it is left out rather than shown as zero.
Market timeline
opened
resolves
103 days remaining — recalculated on every 15-minute rebuild.
What does 19.0% mean?
The market is currently pricing the Before Dec 1, 2026 outcome at about 19.0%: a contract that pays $1 if the market resolves that way costs roughly 19.0% of its payout to buy. That number is the market-implied probability, the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, not a forecast by PredictionBubbles.
When the price moves, the market has repriced the question. The 24-hour figure on this page is that move in probability points, not percent. Markets can be early, late or wrong; what keeps the number honest is that anyone who disagrees can trade against it.
Where this price comes from
- Source
- Kalshi
- Type
- CFTC-regulated, US
- Updated
- every 15 minutes
- Prices read
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange settling in dollars. The number above is the last traded price on this contract, pulled from the venue’s public API and refreshed every 15 minutes. This site takes no position and sets no price of its own.
To weigh it against the same question elsewhere, open the live board: it puts the busiest open Polymarket and Kalshi market side by side, sized by volume and colored by probability.
More Other markets
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92.1%implied probability +0.4 points in 24h
$31.5M traded · $169K open interest · Kalshi · resolves
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72.0%implied probability +1.0 points in 24h
$4.4M traded · $3.2M open interest · Kalshi · resolves
Will there be a recession in 2026? — Starts
8.0%implied probability +3.0 points in 24h
$3.3M traded · $889K open interest · Kalshi · resolves
Will at least 50% of scheduled passenger and cargo flights at JFK be cancelled October 21, 2026?
1.6%implied probability 0.0 points in 24h
$3.0M traded · $3.0M open interest · Kalshi · resolves
The biggest other markets on the board by traded volume, browsing rather than a claim that they bear on this question. All other markets → · See this market on the live board → · Markets moving now →