PredictionBubbles
Kalshi · OtherOpen

When will Anduril IPO? — Before May 1, 2027

Before May 1, 2027 — market-implied probability

18.0%

No 82.0%

$8Klifetime volume

$4Kopen interest

Before May 1, 2027 is trading at 18.0% on Kalshi. $8K traded over the market’s life. It resolves on 1 May 2027, 261 days from now.

By volume it is number 44 of the 64 open other markets on the board.

Trade this on Kalshi ↗

Current odds

Before May 1, 202718.0%
No82.0%

Prices are the market’s implied probability: a contract at 62% costs 62 cents and pays $1 if it resolves true.

Price history

14 Nov1.0% – 83.0%10 Aug

Yes moved from 65.0% to 18.0% over the 269 days charted — 47.0 points lower, ranging between 1.0% and 83.0% on the way.

Price history for Yes over the 269 days charted
Window open65.0%
Latest sample18.0%
Change over window-47.0 points
Window high83.0%
Window low1.0%
Samples180, about every 24 hours

Read off the samples the line is drawn from. A price moved; PredictionBubbles reports the move and does not determine what caused it. Points, not percent — a change from 20% to 25% is five points.

Sampled for Yes. The live board draws every outcome and lets you switch the window.

Market activity

$8KLifetime volume

traded over the market's life.

$4KOpen interest

still committed in open positions.

Where the venue does not publish a figure, it is left out rather than shown as zero.

Market timeline

opened

resolves

261 days remaining — recalculated on every 15-minute rebuild.

Other markets resolving in May 2027 →

What does 18.0% mean?

The market is currently pricing the Before May 1, 2027 outcome at about 18.0%: a contract that pays $1 if the market resolves that way costs roughly 18.0% of its payout to buy. That number is the market-implied probability — the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, not a forecast by PredictionBubbles.

When the price moves, the market has repriced the question — the 24-hour figure on this page is that move in probability points, not percent. Markets can be early, late or wrong; what keeps the number honest is that anyone who disagrees can trade against it.

Where this price comes from

Source
Kalshi
Type
CFTC-regulated, US
Updated
every 15 minutes
Prices read

Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange settling in dollars. The number above is the last traded price on this contract, pulled from the venue’s public API and refreshed every 15 minutes. This site takes no position and sets no price of its own.

To weigh it against the same question elsewhere, open the live board: it puts the busiest open Polymarket and Kalshi market side by side, sized by volume and colored by probability.

More Other markets

More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025? — Yes

91.5%implied probability +0.2 points in 24h

$31.4M traded · $168K open interest · Kalshi · resolves

Will there be a recession in 2026? — Starts

5.0%implied probability -1.0 points in 24h

$3.2M traded · $906K open interest · Kalshi · resolves

Will at least 50% of scheduled passenger and cargo flights at JFK be cancelled October 21, 2026?

2.8%implied probability +0.1 points in 24h

$3.0M traded · $3.0M open interest · Kalshi · resolves

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their September 2026 meeting?

66.0%implied probability +8.0 points in 24h

$3.0M traded · $2.4M open interest · Kalshi · resolves

The biggest other markets on the board by traded volume — browsing rather than a claim that they bear on this question. All other markets → · See this market on the live board → · Markets moving now →