Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?
Yes — market-implied probability
0.0%
No 100.0%
$1.2Mlifetime volume
Yes is trading at 0.0% on Polymarket. $1.2M traded over the market’s life. It was scheduled to resolve on 1 July 2026.
This market has settled. The odds below are the last traded prices before close.
Final odds
| Yes | 0.0% | |
|---|---|---|
| No | 100.0% |
Prices are the market’s implied probability: a contract at 62% costs 62 cents and pays $1 if it resolves true.
Market activity
$1.2MLifetime volume
traded over the market's life.
Where the venue does not publish a figure, it is left out rather than shown as zero.
Market timeline
opened
resolved
Where this price comes from
- Source
- Polymarket
- Type
- on-chain, Polygon
- Updated
- closing price, recorded before settlement
Polymarket is an on-chain venue settling in USDC on Polygon. The number above is the closing price on this contract, recorded before the market settled. This site takes no position and sets no price of its own.
To weigh it against the same question elsewhere, open the live board: it puts the busiest open Polymarket and Kalshi market side by side, sized by volume and colored by probability.
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