PredictionBubbles
Polymarket · Politics

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?

Yes is trading at 16.5% on Polymarket, down 1.0 points in the last 24 hours. $278K traded over the market’s life, $563 of it in the last day. It resolves on 31 December 2026, 145 days from now.

By volume it is number 733 of the 833 open politics markets on the board, and $563 of that traded in the last day.

Trade this on Polymarket ↗

Current odds

Yes16.5%
No83.5%

Prices are the market’s implied probability: a contract at 62% costs 62 cents and pays $1 if it resolves true.

Price history

9 Jul7.2% – 50.8%7 Aug

Hourly samples for Yes. The live board draws every outcome and lets you switch the window.

Market detail

Lifetime volume
$278K
24h volume
$563
24h move
-1.0 points
Liquidity
$49K
Open interest
—
Opened
9 July 2026
Resolves
31 December 2026
Venue
Polymarket · on-chain, Polygon

Where this price comes from

Polymarket is an on-chain venue settling in USDC on Polygon. The number above is the last traded price on this contract, pulled from the venue’s public API and refreshed every 15 minutes. This site takes no position and sets no price of its own.

To weigh it against the same question elsewhere, open the live board: it puts the busiest open Polymarket and Kalshi market side by side, sized by volume and colored by probability.

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