Will the margin of victory for Ralph Norman in the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate runoff be at least 10%?
Ralph Norman, ≥10% — market-implied probability
11.0%
No 89.0%
$1Klifetime volume
$1K24h volume
$1Kopen interest
Ralph Norman, ≥10% is trading at 11.0% on Kalshi. $1K traded over the market’s life, $1K of it in the last day. It resolves on 25 August 2027, 365 days from now.
Current odds
| Ralph Norman, ≥10% | 11.0% | |
|---|---|---|
| No | 89.0% |
Prices are the market’s implied probability: a contract at 62% costs 62 cents and pays $1 if it resolves true.
Market activity
$1KLifetime volume
traded over the market's life.
$1K24h volume
traded in the last day.
$1KOpen interest
still committed in open positions.
Where the venue does not publish a figure, it is left out rather than shown as zero.
Market timeline
opened
resolves
365 days remaining — recalculated on every 15-minute rebuild.
What does 11.0% mean?
The market is currently pricing the Ralph Norman, ≥10% outcome at about 11.0%: a contract that pays $1 if the market resolves that way costs roughly 11.0% of its payout to buy. That number is the market-implied probability, the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, not a forecast by PredictionBubbles.
When the price moves, the market has repriced the question. The 24-hour figure on this page is that move in probability points, not percent. Markets can be early, late or wrong; what keeps the number honest is that anyone who disagrees can trade against it.
Where this price comes from
- Source
- Kalshi
- Type
- CFTC-regulated, US
- Updated
- every 15 minutes
- Prices read
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange settling in dollars. The number above is the last traded price on this contract, pulled from the venue’s public API and refreshed every 15 minutes. This site takes no position and sets no price of its own.
To weigh it against the same question elsewhere, open the live board: it puts the busiest open Polymarket and Kalshi market side by side, sized by volume and colored by probability.
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