Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin by 2027?
Before 2027 — market-implied probability
1.0%▼ -5.0 points in 24h
No 99.0%
$182Klifetime volume
$1K24h volume
$59Kopen interest
Before 2027 is trading at 1.0% on Kalshi, down 5.0 points in the last 24 hours. $182K traded over the market’s life, $1K of it in the last day. It resolves on 1 January 2027, 140 days from now.
By volume it is number 178 of the 238 open crypto markets on the board, and $1K of that traded in the last day.
Current odds
| Before 2027 | 1.0% | |
|---|---|---|
| No | 99.0% |
Prices are the market’s implied probability: a contract at 62% costs 62 cents and pays $1 if it resolves true.
Price history
Yes moved from 14.0% to 6.0% over the 294 days charted — 8.0 points lower, ranging between 4.0% and 20.0% on the way.
| Window open | 14.0% |
|---|---|
| Latest sample | 6.0% |
| Change over window | -8.0 points |
| Window high | 20.0% |
| Window low | 4.0% |
| Samples | 180, about every 2 days |
Read off the samples the line is drawn from. A price moved; PredictionBubbles reports the move and does not determine what caused it. Points, not percent — a change from 20% to 25% is five points.
Sampled for Yes. The live board draws every outcome and lets you switch the window.
Market activity
$182KLifetime volume
traded over the market's life.
$1K24h volume
traded in the last day.
$59KOpen interest
still committed in open positions.
Where the venue does not publish a figure, it is left out rather than shown as zero.
Market timeline
opened
resolves
140 days remaining — recalculated on every 15-minute rebuild.
What does 1.0% mean?
The market is currently pricing the Before 2027 outcome at about 1.0%: a contract that pays $1 if the market resolves that way costs roughly 1.0% of its payout to buy. That number is the market-implied probability — the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, not a forecast by PredictionBubbles.
When the price moves, the market has repriced the question — the 24-hour figure on this page is that move in probability points, not percent. Markets can be early, late or wrong; what keeps the number honest is that anyone who disagrees can trade against it.
Where this price comes from
- Source
- Kalshi
- Type
- CFTC-regulated, US
- Updated
- every 15 minutes
- Prices read
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange settling in dollars. The number above is the last traded price on this contract, pulled from the venue’s public API and refreshed every 15 minutes. This site takes no position and sets no price of its own.
To weigh it against the same question elsewhere, open the live board: it puts the busiest open Polymarket and Kalshi market side by side, sized by volume and colored by probability.
More Crypto markets
Will Bitcoin be above $200000 by Jan 1, 2027 at 11:59PM ET?
3.0%implied probability 0.0 points in 24h
$6.9M traded · $2.5M open interest · Kalshi · resolves
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?
1.7%implied probability
$5.4M traded · Polymarket · resolves
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?
56.0%implied probability +0.5 points in 24h
$5.0M traded · Polymarket · resolves
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026?
2.2%implied probability
$4.9M traded · Polymarket · resolves
The biggest crypto markets on the board by traded volume — browsing rather than a claim that they bear on this question. All crypto markets → · See this market on the live board → · Markets moving now →