Will James Fishback receive at least 3% of the popular vote in the 2026 Florida Republican Governor primary?
At least 3% — market-implied probability
99.9%▲ +1.6 points in 24h
No 0.1%
$482Klifetime volume
$123K24h volume
$312Kopen interest
At least 3% is trading at 99.9% on Kalshi, up 1.6 points in the last 24 hours. $482K traded over the market’s life, $123K of it in the last day. It resolves on 18 August 2027, 364 days from now.
By volume it is number 643 of the 906 open politics markets on the board, and $123K of that traded in the last day.
Current odds
| At least 3% | 99.9% | |
|---|---|---|
| No | 0.1% |
Prices are the market’s implied probability: a contract at 62% costs 62 cents and pays $1 if it resolves true.
Price history
Yes moved from 73.0% to 98.5% over the 135 days charted — 25.5 points higher, ranging between 38.0% and 99.4% on the way.
| Window open | 73.0% |
|---|---|
| Latest sample | 98.5% |
| Change over window | +25.5 points |
| Window high | 99.4% |
| Window low | 38.0% |
| Samples | 128, about every 24 hours |
Read off the samples the line is drawn from. A price moved; PredictionBubbles reports the move and does not determine what caused it. Points, not percent — a change from 20% to 25% is five points.
Sampled for Yes. The live board draws every outcome and lets you switch the window.
Market activity
$482KLifetime volume
traded over the market's life.
$123K24h volume
traded in the last day.
$312KOpen interest
still committed in open positions.
Where the venue does not publish a figure, it is left out rather than shown as zero.
Market timeline
opened
resolves
364 days remaining — recalculated on every 15-minute rebuild.
What does 99.9% mean?
The market is currently pricing the At least 3% outcome at about 99.9%: a contract that pays $1 if the market resolves that way costs roughly 99.9% of its payout to buy. That number is the market-implied probability — the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, not a forecast by PredictionBubbles.
When the price moves, the market has repriced the question — the 24-hour figure on this page is that move in probability points, not percent. Markets can be early, late or wrong; what keeps the number honest is that anyone who disagrees can trade against it.
Where this price comes from
- Source
- Kalshi
- Type
- CFTC-regulated, US
- Updated
- every 15 minutes
- Prices read
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange settling in dollars. The number above is the last traded price on this contract, pulled from the venue’s public API and refreshed every 15 minutes. This site takes no position and sets no price of its own.
To weigh it against the same question elsewhere, open the live board: it puts the busiest open Polymarket and Kalshi market side by side, sized by volume and colored by probability.
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