Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Missouri first officially determines all Democratic and Republican nominees for its eight U.S. House districts through party committee selections before Nov 3, 2026? — Parties choose nominees
Parties choose nominees — market-implied probability
1.0%
No 99.0%
$1Klifetime volume
$1K24h volume
$1Kopen interest
Parties choose nominees is trading at 1.0% on Kalshi. $1K traded over the market’s life, $1K of it in the last day. It resolves on 3 November 2026, 60 days from now.
By volume it is number 912 of the 913 open politics markets on the board, and $1K of that traded in the last day.
Current odds
| Parties choose nominees | 1.0% | |
|---|---|---|
| No | 99.0% |
Prices are the market’s implied probability: a contract at 62% costs 62 cents and pays $1 if it resolves true.
Market activity
$1KLifetime volume
traded over the market's life.
$1K24h volume
traded in the last day.
$1KOpen interest
still committed in open positions.
Where the venue does not publish a figure, it is left out rather than shown as zero.
Market timeline
opened
resolves
60 days remaining — recalculated on every 15-minute rebuild.
What does 1.0% mean?
The market is currently pricing the Parties choose nominees outcome at about 1.0%: a contract that pays $1 if the market resolves that way costs roughly 1.0% of its payout to buy. That number is the market-implied probability, the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, not a forecast by PredictionBubbles.
When the price moves, the market has repriced the question. The 24-hour figure on this page is that move in probability points, not percent. Markets can be early, late or wrong; what keeps the number honest is that anyone who disagrees can trade against it.
Where this price comes from
- Source
- Kalshi
- Type
- CFTC-regulated, US
- Updated
- every 15 minutes
- Prices read
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange settling in dollars. The number above is the last traded price on this contract, pulled from the venue’s public API and refreshed every 15 minutes. This site takes no position and sets no price of its own.
To weigh it against the same question elsewhere, open the live board: it puts the busiest open Polymarket and Kalshi market side by side, sized by volume and colored by probability.
More Politics markets
Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
0.4%implied probability
$83.5M traded · Polymarket · resolves
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
14.5%implied probability -1.0 points in 24h
$64.7M traded · $7.6M open interest · Polymarket · resolves
Will Gedion Timothewos be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
0.8%implied probability
$55.9M traded · Polymarket · resolves
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
0.1%implied probability
$54.7M traded · Polymarket · resolves
The biggest politics markets on the board by traded volume, browsing rather than a claim that they bear on this question. All politics markets → · See this market on the live board → · Markets moving now →