PredictionBubbles
Kalshi · CryptoOpen

Will BTC trimmed mean be above $70000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Aug 31, 2026?

Above $70,000.00 — market-implied probability

56.0%▲ +41.0 points in 24h

No 44.0%

$444Klifetime volume

$128K24h volume

$260Kopen interest

Above $70,000.00 is trading at 56.0% on Kalshi, up 41.0 points in the last 24 hours. $444K traded over the market’s life, $128K of it in the last day. It resolves on 1 September 2026, 12 days from now.

By volume it is number 122 of the 279 open crypto markets on the board, and $128K of that traded in the last day.

Trade this on Kalshi ↗

Current odds

Above $70,000.0056.0%
No44.0%

Prices are the market’s implied probability: a contract at 62% costs 62 cents and pays $1 if it resolves true.

Price history

2 Aug24.0% – 32.0%10 Aug

Yes moved from 24.0% to 30.0% over the 8 days charted — 6.0 points higher, ranging between 24.0% and 32.0% on the way.

Price history for Yes over the 8 days charted
Window open24.0%
Latest sample30.0%
Change over window+6.0 points
Window high32.0%
Window low24.0%
Samples9, about every 24 hours

Read off the samples the line is drawn from. A price moved; PredictionBubbles reports the move and does not determine what caused it. Points, not percent. A change from 20% to 25% is five points.

Sampled for Yes. The live board draws every outcome and lets you switch the window.

Market activity

$444KLifetime volume

traded over the market's life.

$128K24h volume

traded in the last day.

$260KOpen interest

still committed in open positions.

Where the venue does not publish a figure, it is left out rather than shown as zero.

Market timeline

opened

resolves

12 days remaining — recalculated on every 15-minute rebuild.

See other markets ending soon →

What does 56.0% mean?

The market is currently pricing the Above $70,000.00 outcome at about 56.0%: a contract that pays $1 if the market resolves that way costs roughly 56.0% of its payout to buy. That number is the market-implied probability, the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, not a forecast by PredictionBubbles.

When the price moves, the market has repriced the question. The 24-hour figure on this page is that move in probability points, not percent. Markets can be early, late or wrong; what keeps the number honest is that anyone who disagrees can trade against it.

Where this price comes from

Source
Kalshi
Type
CFTC-regulated, US
Updated
every 15 minutes
Prices read

Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange settling in dollars. The number above is the last traded price on this contract, pulled from the venue’s public API and refreshed every 15 minutes. This site takes no position and sets no price of its own.

To weigh it against the same question elsewhere, open the live board: it puts the busiest open Polymarket and Kalshi market side by side, sized by volume and colored by probability.

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