When will "The Last of Us" Season 3 be released? — Before Jul 2027
Before Jul 2027 — market-implied probability
17.0%▼ -57.0 points in 24h
No 83.0%
$14Klifetime volume
$21824h volume
$9Kopen interest
Before Jul 2027 is trading at 17.0% on Kalshi, down 57.0 points in the last 24 hours. $14K traded over the market’s life, $218 of it in the last day. It resolves on 1 July 2027, 312 days from now.
By volume it is number 33 of the 34 open culture markets on the board, and $218 of that traded in the last day.
Current odds
| Before Jul 2027 | 17.0% | |
|---|---|---|
| No | 83.0% |
Prices are the market’s implied probability: a contract at 62% costs 62 cents and pays $1 if it resolves true.
Price history
Yes moved from 76.0% to 20.0% over the 379 days charted — 56.0 points lower, ranging between 17.0% and 76.0% on the way.
| Window open | 76.0% |
|---|---|
| Latest sample | 20.0% |
| Change over window | -56.0 points |
| Window high | 76.0% |
| Window low | 17.0% |
| Samples | 180, about every 2 days |
Read off the samples the line is drawn from. A price moved; PredictionBubbles reports the move and does not determine what caused it. Points, not percent. A change from 20% to 25% is five points.
Sampled for Yes. The live board draws every outcome and lets you switch the window.
Market activity
$14KLifetime volume
traded over the market's life.
$21824h volume
traded in the last day.
$9KOpen interest
still committed in open positions.
Where the venue does not publish a figure, it is left out rather than shown as zero.
Market timeline
opened
resolves
312 days remaining — recalculated on every 15-minute rebuild.
What does 17.0% mean?
The market is currently pricing the Before Jul 2027 outcome at about 17.0%: a contract that pays $1 if the market resolves that way costs roughly 17.0% of its payout to buy. That number is the market-implied probability, the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, not a forecast by PredictionBubbles.
When the price moves, the market has repriced the question. The 24-hour figure on this page is that move in probability points, not percent. Markets can be early, late or wrong; what keeps the number honest is that anyone who disagrees can trade against it.
Where this price comes from
- Source
- Kalshi
- Type
- CFTC-regulated, US
- Updated
- every 15 minutes
- Prices read
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange settling in dollars. The number above is the last traded price on this contract, pulled from the venue’s public API and refreshed every 15 minutes. This site takes no position and sets no price of its own.
To weigh it against the same question elsewhere, open the live board: it puts the busiest open Polymarket and Kalshi market side by side, sized by volume and colored by probability.
More Culture markets
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
1.9%implied probability -0.1 points in 24h
$65.1M traded · $1.4M open interest · Polymarket · resolves
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026?
0.1%implied probability
$2.5M traded · Polymarket · resolves
Will A New Episode of Stranger Things be released Worldwide before Jan 1, 2027? — Yes
4.0%implied probability 0.0 points in 24h
$2.4M traded · $474K open interest · Kalshi · resolves
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026?
0.1%implied probability
$2.3M traded · Polymarket · resolves
The biggest culture markets on the board by traded volume, browsing rather than a claim that they bear on this question. All culture markets → · See this market on the live board → · Markets moving now →