Will there be at least 4750 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
Yes — market-implied probability
77.0%▲ +27.5 points in 24h
No 23.0%
$182lifetime volume
$18224h volume
$1Kliquidity
Yes is trading at 77.0% on Polymarket, up 27.5 points in the last 24 hours. $182 traded over the market’s life, $182 of it in the last day. It resolves on 1 January 2027, 118 days from now.
By volume it is number 24 of the 24 open climate markets on the board, and $182 of that traded in the last day.
Current odds
| Yes | 77.0% | |
|---|---|---|
| No | 23.0% |
Prices are the market’s implied probability: a contract at 62% costs 62 cents and pays $1 if it resolves true.
Price history
Yes moved from 50.5% to 48.0% over the day charted — 2.5 points lower.
| Window open | 50.5% |
|---|---|
| Latest sample | 48.0% |
| Change over window | -2.5 points |
| Window high | 50.5% |
| Window low | 48.0% |
| Samples | 18, about hourly |
Read off the samples the line is drawn from. A price moved; PredictionBubbles reports the move and does not determine what caused it. Points, not percent. A change from 20% to 25% is five points.
Sampled for Yes. The live board draws every outcome and lets you switch the window.
Market activity
$182Lifetime volume
traded over the market's life.
$18224h volume
traded in the last day.
$1KLiquidity
resting on the order book.
Where the venue does not publish a figure, it is left out rather than shown as zero.
Market timeline
opened
resolves
118 days remaining — recalculated on every 15-minute rebuild.
What does 77.0% mean?
The market is currently pricing the Yes outcome at about 77.0%: a contract that pays $1 if the market resolves that way costs roughly 77.0% of its payout to buy. That number is the market-implied probability, the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, not a forecast by PredictionBubbles.
When the price moves, the market has repriced the question. The 24-hour figure on this page is that move in probability points, not percent. Markets can be early, late or wrong; what keeps the number honest is that anyone who disagrees can trade against it.
Where this price comes from
- Source
- Polymarket
- Type
- on-chain, Polygon
- Updated
- every 15 minutes
- Prices read
Polymarket is an on-chain venue settling in USDC on Polygon. The number above is the last traded price on this contract, pulled from the venue’s public API and refreshed every 15 minutes. This site takes no position and sets no price of its own.
To weigh it against the same question elsewhere, open the live board: it puts the busiest open Polymarket and Kalshi market side by side, sized by volume and colored by probability.
More Climate markets
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3.2%implied probability -0.2 points in 24h
$18.0M traded · $1.5M open interest · Polymarket · resolves
Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record?
0.1%implied probability
$828K traded · Polymarket · resolves
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
1.0%implied probability
$815K traded · $98K open interest · Polymarket · resolves
The biggest climate markets on the board by traded volume, browsing rather than a claim that they bear on this question. All climate markets → · See this market on the live board → · Markets moving now →