Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes — market-implied probability
0.1%
No 99.9%
$129Klifetime volume
$28K24h volume
$1.5Mliquidity
Yes is trading at 0.1% on Polymarket. $129K traded over the market’s life, $28K of it in the last day. It runs until 7 November 2028.
By volume it is number 874 of the 900 open politics markets on the board, and $28K of that traded in the last day.
Current odds
| Yes | 0.1% | |
|---|---|---|
| No | 99.9% |
Prices are the market’s implied probability: a contract at 62% costs 62 cents and pays $1 if it resolves true.
Price history
Yes opened this window at 0.5% and stands at 0.1% — flat across the 19 days charted.
| Window open | 0.5% |
|---|---|
| Latest sample | 0.1% |
| Change over window | -0.4 points |
| Window high | 0.5% |
| Window low | 0.1% |
| Samples | 180, about every 3 hours |
Read off the samples the line is drawn from. A price moved; PredictionBubbles reports the move and does not determine what caused it. Points, not percent — a change from 20% to 25% is five points.
Sampled for Yes. The live board draws every outcome and lets you switch the window.
Market activity
$129KLifetime volume
traded over the market's life.
$28K24h volume
traded in the last day.
$1.5MLiquidity
resting on the order book.
Where the venue does not publish a figure, it is left out rather than shown as zero.
Market timeline
opened
resolves
What does 0.1% mean?
The market is currently pricing the Yes outcome at about 0.1%: a contract that pays $1 if the market resolves that way costs roughly 0.1% of its payout to buy. That number is the market-implied probability — the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, not a forecast by PredictionBubbles.
When the price moves, the market has repriced the question — the 24-hour figure on this page is that move in probability points, not percent. Markets can be early, late or wrong; what keeps the number honest is that anyone who disagrees can trade against it.
Where this price comes from
- Source
- Polymarket
- Type
- on-chain, Polygon
- Updated
- every 15 minutes
- Prices read
Polymarket is an on-chain venue settling in USDC on Polygon. The number above is the last traded price on this contract, pulled from the venue’s public API and refreshed every 15 minutes. This site takes no position and sets no price of its own.
To weigh it against the same question elsewhere, open the live board: it puts the busiest open Polymarket and Kalshi market side by side, sized by volume and colored by probability.
More Politics markets
Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
0.7%implied probability +0.1 points in 24h
$79.7M traded · Polymarket · resolves
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
17.5%implied probability
$58.6M traded · $8.2M open interest · Polymarket · resolves
Will Gedion Timothewos be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
1.6%implied probability
$55.9M traded · Polymarket · resolves
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
0.1%implied probability
$54.5M traded · Polymarket · resolves
The biggest politics markets on the board by traded volume — browsing rather than a claim that they bear on this question. All politics markets → · See this market on the live board → · Markets moving now →