Will CD Guadalajara win on 2026-08-12?
Yes — market-implied probability
27.5%▼ -20.0 points in 24h
No 72.5%
$258Klifetime volume
$249K24h volume
$129Kliquidity
Yes is trading at 27.5% on Polymarket, down 20.0 points in the last 24 hours. $258K traded over the market’s life, $249K of it in the last day. It was scheduled to resolve on 13 August 2026.
By volume it is number 513 of the 698 open sports markets on the board, and $249K of that traded in the last day.
Current odds
| Yes | 27.5% | |
|---|---|---|
| No | 72.5% |
Prices are the market’s implied probability: a contract at 62% costs 62 cents and pays $1 if it resolves true.
Price history
Yes moved from 48.0% to 32.5% over the 16 days charted — 15.5 points lower, ranging between 32.5% and 59.5% on the way.
| Window open | 48.0% |
|---|---|
| Latest sample | 32.5% |
| Change over window | -15.5 points |
| Window high | 59.5% |
| Window low | 32.5% |
| Samples | 180, about every 2 hours |
Read off the samples the line is drawn from. A price moved; PredictionBubbles reports the move and does not determine what caused it. Points, not percent — a change from 20% to 25% is five points.
Sampled for Yes. The live board draws every outcome and lets you switch the window.
Market activity
$258KLifetime volume
traded over the market's life.
$249K24h volume
traded in the last day.
$129KLiquidity
resting on the order book.
Where the venue does not publish a figure, it is left out rather than shown as zero.
Market timeline
opened
resolves
What does 27.5% mean?
The market is currently pricing the Yes outcome at about 27.5%: a contract that pays $1 if the market resolves that way costs roughly 27.5% of its payout to buy. That number is the market-implied probability — the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, not a forecast by PredictionBubbles.
When the price moves, the market has repriced the question — the 24-hour figure on this page is that move in probability points, not percent. Markets can be early, late or wrong; what keeps the number honest is that anyone who disagrees can trade against it.
Where this price comes from
- Source
- Polymarket
- Type
- on-chain, Polygon
- Updated
- every 15 minutes
- Prices read
Polymarket is an on-chain venue settling in USDC on Polygon. The number above is the last traded price on this contract, pulled from the venue’s public API and refreshed every 15 minutes. This site takes no position and sets no price of its own.
To weigh it against the same question elsewhere, open the live board: it puts the busiest open Polymarket and Kalshi market side by side, sized by volume and colored by probability.
More Sports markets
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
0.1%implied probability
$12.9M traded · Polymarket · resolves
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
0.1%implied probability
$12.2M traded · Polymarket · resolves
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
0.1%implied probability
$12.2M traded · Polymarket · resolves
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
0.1%implied probability
$12.0M traded · Polymarket · resolves
The biggest sports markets on the board by traded volume — browsing rather than a claim that they bear on this question. All sports markets → · See this market on the live board → · Markets moving now →