Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?
Yes — market-implied probability
45.5%▲ +5.5 points in 24h
No 54.5%
$133Klifetime volume
$9K24h volume
$52Kliquidity
Yes is trading at 45.5% on Polymarket, up 5.5 points in the last 24 hours. $133K traded over the market’s life, $9K of it in the last day. It resolves on 1 October 2026, 36 days from now.
By volume it is number 884 of the 903 open politics markets on the board, and $9K of that traded in the last day.
Current odds
| Yes | 45.5% | |
|---|---|---|
| No | 54.5% |
Prices are the market’s implied probability: a contract at 62% costs 62 cents and pays $1 if it resolves true.
Price history
Yes moved from 44.5% to 63.0% over the 5 days charted — 18.5 points higher, ranging between 44.5% and 79.5% on the way.
| Window open | 44.5% |
|---|---|
| Latest sample | 63.0% |
| Change over window | +18.5 points |
| Window high | 79.5% |
| Window low | 44.5% |
| Samples | 133, about hourly |
Read off the samples the line is drawn from. A price moved; PredictionBubbles reports the move and does not determine what caused it. Points, not percent. A change from 20% to 25% is five points.
Sampled for Yes. The live board draws every outcome and lets you switch the window.
Market activity
$133KLifetime volume
traded over the market's life.
$9K24h volume
traded in the last day.
$52KLiquidity
resting on the order book.
Where the venue does not publish a figure, it is left out rather than shown as zero.
Market timeline
opened
resolves
36 days remaining — recalculated on every 15-minute rebuild.
What does 45.5% mean?
The market is currently pricing the Yes outcome at about 45.5%: a contract that pays $1 if the market resolves that way costs roughly 45.5% of its payout to buy. That number is the market-implied probability, the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, not a forecast by PredictionBubbles.
When the price moves, the market has repriced the question. The 24-hour figure on this page is that move in probability points, not percent. Markets can be early, late or wrong; what keeps the number honest is that anyone who disagrees can trade against it.
Where this price comes from
- Source
- Polymarket
- Type
- on-chain, Polygon
- Updated
- every 15 minutes
- Prices read
Polymarket is an on-chain venue settling in USDC on Polygon. The number above is the last traded price on this contract, pulled from the venue’s public API and refreshed every 15 minutes. This site takes no position and sets no price of its own.
To weigh it against the same question elsewhere, open the live board: it puts the busiest open Polymarket and Kalshi market side by side, sized by volume and colored by probability.
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