Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?
Yes — market-implied probability
4.0%▼ -0.1 points in 24h
No 96.0%
$122Klifetime volume
$27424h volume
$125Kliquidity
Yes is trading at 4.0% on Polymarket, down 0.1 points in the last 24 hours. $122K traded over the market’s life, $274 of it in the last day. It resolves on 8 November 2026, 67 days from now.
By volume it is number 138 of the 146 open finance markets on the board, and $274 of that traded in the last day.
Current odds
| Yes | 4.0% | |
|---|---|---|
| No | 96.0% |
Prices are the market’s implied probability: a contract at 62% costs 62 cents and pays $1 if it resolves true.
Price history
Yes moved from 13.5% to 4.3% over the 46 days charted — 9.2 points lower, ranging between 4.3% and 14.6% on the way.
| Window open | 13.5% |
|---|---|
| Latest sample | 4.3% |
| Change over window | -9.2 points |
| Window high | 14.6% |
| Window low | 4.3% |
| Samples | 180, about every 6 hours |
Read off the samples the line is drawn from. A price moved; PredictionBubbles reports the move and does not determine what caused it. Points, not percent. A change from 20% to 25% is five points.
Sampled for Yes. The live board draws every outcome and lets you switch the window.
Market activity
$122KLifetime volume
traded over the market's life.
$27424h volume
traded in the last day.
$125KLiquidity
resting on the order book.
Where the venue does not publish a figure, it is left out rather than shown as zero.
Market timeline
opened
resolves
67 days remaining — recalculated on every 15-minute rebuild.
What does 4.0% mean?
The market is currently pricing the Yes outcome at about 4.0%: a contract that pays $1 if the market resolves that way costs roughly 4.0% of its payout to buy. That number is the market-implied probability, the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, not a forecast by PredictionBubbles.
When the price moves, the market has repriced the question. The 24-hour figure on this page is that move in probability points, not percent. Markets can be early, late or wrong; what keeps the number honest is that anyone who disagrees can trade against it.
Where this price comes from
- Source
- Polymarket
- Type
- on-chain, Polygon
- Updated
- every 15 minutes
- Prices read
Polymarket is an on-chain venue settling in USDC on Polygon. The number above is the last traded price on this contract, pulled from the venue’s public API and refreshed every 15 minutes. This site takes no position and sets no price of its own.
To weigh it against the same question elsewhere, open the live board: it puts the busiest open Polymarket and Kalshi market side by side, sized by volume and colored by probability.
More Finance markets
Fed rate hike in 2026?
70.5%implied probability +3.0 points in 24h
$8.3M traded · $1.6M open interest · Polymarket · resolves
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?
3.6%implied probability
$8.0M traded · Polymarket · resolves
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
88.6%implied probability +0.7 points in 24h
$7.7M traded · Polymarket · resolves
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
0.1%implied probability
$5.3M traded · Polymarket · resolves
The biggest finance markets on the board by traded volume, browsing rather than a claim that they bear on this question. All finance markets → · See this market on the live board → · Markets moving now →