9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

Current odds

Prices are the market’s implied probability: a contract at 62% costs 62 cents and pays $1 if it resolves true.

Market activity

Where the venue does not publish a figure, it is left out rather than shown as zero.

Market timeline

Other markets resolving in January 2027 →

What does 6.9% mean?

The market is currently pricing the Yes outcome at about 6.9%: a contract that pays $1 if the market resolves that way costs roughly 6.9% of its payout to buy. That number is the market-implied probability, the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, not a forecast by PredictionBubbles.

When the price moves, the market has repriced the question. The 24-hour figure on this page is that move in probability points, not percent. Markets can be early, late or wrong; what keeps the number honest is that anyone who disagrees can trade against it.

Where this price comes from

Polymarket is an on-chain venue settling in USDC on Polygon. The number above is the last traded price on this contract, pulled from the venue’s public API and refreshed every 15 minutes. This site takes no position and sets no price of its own.

To weigh it against the same question elsewhere, open the live board: it puts the busiest open Polymarket and Kalshi market side by side, sized by volume and colored by probability.

Related markets

Ranked by the words these questions share against how common those words are across the board, so a rare match counts for more than several ordinary ones. A market on the other exchange is preferred where one prices the same question. This is the ranking the live board’s “people also watch” panel uses.

More Climate markets

The biggest climate markets on the board by traded volume, browsing rather than a claim that they bear on this question. All climate markets → · See this market on the live board → · Markets moving now →