Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? — Before Dec 1, 2026
Before Dec 1, 2026 — market-implied probability
11.0%▲ +4.0 points in 24h
No 89.0%
$134Klifetime volume
$33724h volume
$61Kopen interest
Before Dec 1, 2026 is trading at 11.0% on Kalshi, up 4.0 points in the last 24 hours. $134K traded over the market’s life, $337 of it in the last day. It resolves on 1 December 2026, 109 days from now.
By volume it is number 856 of the 893 open politics markets on the board, and $337 of that traded in the last day.
Current odds
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 11.0% | |
|---|---|---|
| No | 89.0% |
Prices are the market’s implied probability: a contract at 62% costs 62 cents and pays $1 if it resolves true.
Price history
Yes moved from 79.0% to 14.0% over the 80 days charted — 65.0 points lower, ranging between 12.0% and 79.0% on the way.
| Window open | 79.0% |
|---|---|
| Latest sample | 14.0% |
| Change over window | -65.0 points |
| Window high | 79.0% |
| Window low | 12.0% |
| Samples | 81, about every 24 hours |
Read off the samples the line is drawn from. A price moved; PredictionBubbles reports the move and does not determine what caused it. Points, not percent — a change from 20% to 25% is five points.
Sampled for Yes. The live board draws every outcome and lets you switch the window.
Market activity
$134KLifetime volume
traded over the market's life.
$33724h volume
traded in the last day.
$61KOpen interest
still committed in open positions.
Where the venue does not publish a figure, it is left out rather than shown as zero.
Market timeline
opened
resolves
109 days remaining — recalculated on every 15-minute rebuild.
What does 11.0% mean?
The market is currently pricing the Before Dec 1, 2026 outcome at about 11.0%: a contract that pays $1 if the market resolves that way costs roughly 11.0% of its payout to buy. That number is the market-implied probability — the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, not a forecast by PredictionBubbles.
When the price moves, the market has repriced the question — the 24-hour figure on this page is that move in probability points, not percent. Markets can be early, late or wrong; what keeps the number honest is that anyone who disagrees can trade against it.
Where this price comes from
- Source
- Kalshi
- Type
- CFTC-regulated, US
- Updated
- every 15 minutes
- Prices read
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange settling in dollars. The number above is the last traded price on this contract, pulled from the venue’s public API and refreshed every 15 minutes. This site takes no position and sets no price of its own.
To weigh it against the same question elsewhere, open the live board: it puts the busiest open Polymarket and Kalshi market side by side, sized by volume and colored by probability.
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