Will the S&P 500 be above 8200 on Dec 31, 2027 at 4pm EST?

Current odds

Prices are the market’s implied probability: a contract at 62% costs 62 cents and pays $1 if it resolves true.

Market activity

Where the venue does not publish a figure, it is left out rather than shown as zero.

Market timeline

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What does 52.0% mean?

The market is currently pricing the 8,200 or above outcome at about 52.0%: a contract that pays $1 if the market resolves that way costs roughly 52.0% of its payout to buy. That number is the market-implied probability — the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, not a forecast by PredictionBubbles.

When the price moves, the market has repriced the question — the 24-hour figure on this page is that move in probability points, not percent. Markets can be early, late or wrong; what keeps the number honest is that anyone who disagrees can trade against it.

Where this price comes from

Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange settling in dollars. The number above is the last traded price on this contract, pulled from the venue’s public API and refreshed every 15 minutes. This site takes no position and sets no price of its own.

To weigh it against the same question elsewhere, open the live board: it puts the busiest open Polymarket and Kalshi market side by side, sized by volume and colored by probability.

Related markets

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