PredictionBubbles
Kalshi · TechOpen

Will SpaceXAI release Grok 4.7 before Aug 31, 2026?

Before Aug 31, 2026 — market-implied probability

22.0%

No 78.0%

$7Klifetime volume

$6Kopen interest

Before Aug 31, 2026 is trading at 22.0% on Kalshi. $7K traded over the market’s life. It resolves on 31 August 2026, 11 days from now.

By volume it is number 39 of the 42 open tech markets on the board.

Trade this on Kalshi ↗

Current odds

Before Aug 31, 202622.0%
No78.0%

Prices are the market’s implied probability: a contract at 62% costs 62 cents and pays $1 if it resolves true.

Price history

1 Aug20.0% – 36.0%17 Aug

Yes moved from 20.0% to 22.0% over the 16 days charted — 2.0 points higher, ranging between 20.0% and 36.0% on the way.

Price history for Yes over the 16 days charted
Window open20.0%
Latest sample22.0%
Change over window+2.0 points
Window high36.0%
Window low20.0%
Samples15, about every 24 hours

Read off the samples the line is drawn from. A price moved; PredictionBubbles reports the move and does not determine what caused it. Points, not percent — a change from 20% to 25% is five points.

Sampled for Yes. The live board draws every outcome and lets you switch the window.

Market activity

$7KLifetime volume

traded over the market's life.

$6KOpen interest

still committed in open positions.

Where the venue does not publish a figure, it is left out rather than shown as zero.

Market timeline

opened

resolves

11 days remaining — recalculated on every 15-minute rebuild.

See other markets ending soon →

What does 22.0% mean?

The market is currently pricing the Before Aug 31, 2026 outcome at about 22.0%: a contract that pays $1 if the market resolves that way costs roughly 22.0% of its payout to buy. That number is the market-implied probability — the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, not a forecast by PredictionBubbles.

When the price moves, the market has repriced the question — the 24-hour figure on this page is that move in probability points, not percent. Markets can be early, late or wrong; what keeps the number honest is that anyone who disagrees can trade against it.

Where this price comes from

Source
Kalshi
Type
CFTC-regulated, US
Updated
every 15 minutes
Prices read

Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange settling in dollars. The number above is the last traded price on this contract, pulled from the venue’s public API and refreshed every 15 minutes. This site takes no position and sets no price of its own.

To weigh it against the same question elsewhere, open the live board: it puts the busiest open Polymarket and Kalshi market side by side, sized by volume and colored by probability.

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