Will Sean Combs receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?
Sean Combs — market-implied probability
13.0%▲ +4.1 points in 24h
No 87.0%
$49Klifetime volume
$18324h volume
$18Kopen interest
Sean Combs is trading at 13.0% on Kalshi, up 4.1 points in the last 24 hours. $49K traded over the market’s life, $183 of it in the last day. It resolves on 1 January 2027, 136 days from now.
By volume it is number 913 of the 931 open politics markets on the board, and $183 of that traded in the last day.
Current odds
| Sean Combs | 13.0% | |
|---|---|---|
| No | 87.0% |
Prices are the market’s implied probability: a contract at 62% costs 62 cents and pays $1 if it resolves true.
Price history
Yes moved from 15.0% to 7.1% over the 220 days charted — 7.9 points lower, ranging between 5.0% and 19.0% on the way.
| Window open | 15.0% |
|---|---|
| Latest sample | 7.1% |
| Change over window | -7.9 points |
| Window high | 19.0% |
| Window low | 5.0% |
| Samples | 180, about every 24 hours |
Read off the samples the line is drawn from. A price moved; PredictionBubbles reports the move and does not determine what caused it. Points, not percent — a change from 20% to 25% is five points.
Sampled for Yes. The live board draws every outcome and lets you switch the window.
Market activity
$49KLifetime volume
traded over the market's life.
$18324h volume
traded in the last day.
$18KOpen interest
still committed in open positions.
Where the venue does not publish a figure, it is left out rather than shown as zero.
Market timeline
opened
resolves
136 days remaining — recalculated on every 15-minute rebuild.
What does 13.0% mean?
The market is currently pricing the Sean Combs outcome at about 13.0%: a contract that pays $1 if the market resolves that way costs roughly 13.0% of its payout to buy. That number is the market-implied probability — the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, not a forecast by PredictionBubbles.
When the price moves, the market has repriced the question — the 24-hour figure on this page is that move in probability points, not percent. Markets can be early, late or wrong; what keeps the number honest is that anyone who disagrees can trade against it.
Where this price comes from
- Source
- Kalshi
- Type
- CFTC-regulated, US
- Updated
- every 15 minutes
- Prices read
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange settling in dollars. The number above is the last traded price on this contract, pulled from the venue’s public API and refreshed every 15 minutes. This site takes no position and sets no price of its own.
To weigh it against the same question elsewhere, open the live board: it puts the busiest open Polymarket and Kalshi market side by side, sized by volume and colored by probability.
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