Will Clarence Thomas announce their departure as Supreme Court justice before Jan 1, 2027?
Before Jan 1, 2027 — market-implied probability
10.0%
No 90.0%
$14Klifetime volume
$4Kopen interest
Before Jan 1, 2027 is trading at 10.0% on Kalshi. $14K traded over the market’s life. It resolves on 1 January 2027, 123 days from now.
By volume it is number 875 of the 884 open politics markets on the board.
Current odds
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 10.0% | |
|---|---|---|
| No | 90.0% |
Prices are the market’s implied probability: a contract at 62% costs 62 cents and pays $1 if it resolves true.
Price history
Yes moved from 11.0% to 10.0% over the 25 days charted — 1.0 points lower, ranging between 9.0% and 12.0% on the way.
| Window open | 11.0% |
|---|---|
| Latest sample | 10.0% |
| Change over window | -1.0 points |
| Window high | 12.0% |
| Window low | 9.0% |
| Samples | 26, about every 24 hours |
Read off the samples the line is drawn from. A price moved; PredictionBubbles reports the move and does not determine what caused it. Points, not percent. A change from 20% to 25% is five points.
Sampled for Yes. The live board draws every outcome and lets you switch the window.
Market activity
$14KLifetime volume
traded over the market's life.
$4KOpen interest
still committed in open positions.
Where the venue does not publish a figure, it is left out rather than shown as zero.
Market timeline
opened
resolves
123 days remaining — recalculated on every 15-minute rebuild.
What does 10.0% mean?
The market is currently pricing the Before Jan 1, 2027 outcome at about 10.0%: a contract that pays $1 if the market resolves that way costs roughly 10.0% of its payout to buy. That number is the market-implied probability, the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, not a forecast by PredictionBubbles.
When the price moves, the market has repriced the question. The 24-hour figure on this page is that move in probability points, not percent. Markets can be early, late or wrong; what keeps the number honest is that anyone who disagrees can trade against it.
Where this price comes from
- Source
- Kalshi
- Type
- CFTC-regulated, US
- Updated
- every 15 minutes
- Prices read
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange settling in dollars. The number above is the last traded price on this contract, pulled from the venue’s public API and refreshed every 15 minutes. This site takes no position and sets no price of its own.
To weigh it against the same question elsewhere, open the live board: it puts the busiest open Polymarket and Kalshi market side by side, sized by volume and colored by probability.
More Politics markets
Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
0.7%implied probability +0.1 points in 24h
$83.5M traded · Polymarket · resolves
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
15.5%implied probability +2.0 points in 24h
$63.3M traded · $7.3M open interest · Polymarket · resolves
Will Gedion Timothewos be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
0.9%implied probability
$55.9M traded · Polymarket · resolves
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
0.1%implied probability
$54.6M traded · Polymarket · resolves
The biggest politics markets on the board by traded volume, browsing rather than a claim that they bear on this question. All politics markets → · See this market on the live board → · Markets moving now →