Will Arthur Fils win the US Open Men's Singles?
Arthur Fils — market-implied probability
7.0%
No 93.0%
$438Klifetime volume
$35K24h volume
$388Kopen interest
Arthur Fils is trading at 7.0% on Kalshi. $438K traded over the market’s life, $35K of it in the last day. It resolves on 28 September 2026, 33 days from now.
By volume it is number 424 of the 616 open sports markets on the board, and $35K of that traded in the last day.
Current odds
| Arthur Fils | 7.0% | |
|---|---|---|
| No | 93.0% |
Prices are the market’s implied probability: a contract at 62% costs 62 cents and pays $1 if it resolves true.
Price history
Yes moved from 12.0% to 7.0% over the 63 days charted — 5.0 points lower, ranging between 1.0% and 12.0% on the way.
| Window open | 12.0% |
|---|---|
| Latest sample | 7.0% |
| Change over window | -5.0 points |
| Window high | 12.0% |
| Window low | 1.0% |
| Samples | 48, about every 24 hours |
Read off the samples the line is drawn from. A price moved; PredictionBubbles reports the move and does not determine what caused it. Points, not percent. A change from 20% to 25% is five points.
Sampled for Yes. The live board draws every outcome and lets you switch the window.
Market activity
$438KLifetime volume
traded over the market's life.
$35K24h volume
traded in the last day.
$388KOpen interest
still committed in open positions.
Where the venue does not publish a figure, it is left out rather than shown as zero.
Market timeline
opened
resolves
33 days remaining — recalculated on every 15-minute rebuild.
What does 7.0% mean?
The market is currently pricing the Arthur Fils outcome at about 7.0%: a contract that pays $1 if the market resolves that way costs roughly 7.0% of its payout to buy. That number is the market-implied probability, the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, not a forecast by PredictionBubbles.
When the price moves, the market has repriced the question. The 24-hour figure on this page is that move in probability points, not percent. Markets can be early, late or wrong; what keeps the number honest is that anyone who disagrees can trade against it.
Where this price comes from
- Source
- Kalshi
- Type
- CFTC-regulated, US
- Updated
- every 15 minutes
- Prices read
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange settling in dollars. The number above is the last traded price on this contract, pulled from the venue’s public API and refreshed every 15 minutes. This site takes no position and sets no price of its own.
To weigh it against the same question elsewhere, open the live board: it puts the busiest open Polymarket and Kalshi market side by side, sized by volume and colored by probability.
More Sports markets
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
0.1%implied probability
$12.9M traded · Polymarket · resolves
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
0.1%implied probability
$12.2M traded · Polymarket · resolves
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
0.1%implied probability
$12.2M traded · Polymarket · resolves
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
0.1%implied probability
$12.0M traded · Polymarket · resolves
The biggest sports markets on the board by traded volume, browsing rather than a claim that they bear on this question. All sports markets → · See this market on the live board → · Markets moving now →