Will Anthropic release Mythos before Jan 1, 2027?
Before Jan 1, 2027 — market-implied probability
17.0%
No 83.0%
$221Klifetime volume
$49024h volume
$75Kopen interest
Before Jan 1, 2027 is trading at 17.0% on Kalshi. $221K traded over the market’s life, $490 of it in the last day. It resolves on 1 January 2027, 132 days from now.
By volume it is number 26 of the 40 open tech markets on the board, and $490 of that traded in the last day.
Current odds
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 17.0% | |
|---|---|---|
| No | 83.0% |
Prices are the market’s implied probability: a contract at 62% costs 62 cents and pays $1 if it resolves true.
Price history
Yes moved from 86.0% to 17.0% over the 118 days charted — 69.0 points lower, ranging between 11.0% and 95.0% on the way.
| Window open | 86.0% |
|---|---|
| Latest sample | 17.0% |
| Change over window | -69.0 points |
| Window high | 95.0% |
| Window low | 11.0% |
| Samples | 115, about every 24 hours |
Read off the samples the line is drawn from. A price moved; PredictionBubbles reports the move and does not determine what caused it. Points, not percent. A change from 20% to 25% is five points.
Sampled for Yes. The live board draws every outcome and lets you switch the window.
Market activity
$221KLifetime volume
traded over the market's life.
$49024h volume
traded in the last day.
$75KOpen interest
still committed in open positions.
Where the venue does not publish a figure, it is left out rather than shown as zero.
Market timeline
opened
resolves
132 days remaining — recalculated on every 15-minute rebuild.
What does 17.0% mean?
The market is currently pricing the Before Jan 1, 2027 outcome at about 17.0%: a contract that pays $1 if the market resolves that way costs roughly 17.0% of its payout to buy. That number is the market-implied probability, the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, not a forecast by PredictionBubbles.
When the price moves, the market has repriced the question. The 24-hour figure on this page is that move in probability points, not percent. Markets can be early, late or wrong; what keeps the number honest is that anyone who disagrees can trade against it.
Where this price comes from
- Source
- Kalshi
- Type
- CFTC-regulated, US
- Updated
- every 15 minutes
- Prices read
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange settling in dollars. The number above is the last traded price on this contract, pulled from the venue’s public API and refreshed every 15 minutes. This site takes no position and sets no price of its own.
To weigh it against the same question elsewhere, open the live board: it puts the busiest open Polymarket and Kalshi market side by side, sized by volume and colored by probability.
More Tech markets
Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
5.7%implied probability 0.0 points in 24h
$27.1M traded · $9.5M open interest · Kalshi · resolves
Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist in 2026? — Before September
1.0%implied probability 0.0 points in 24h
$2.7M traded · $1.7M open interest · Kalshi · resolves
Best AI on Dec 31, 2026? — Claude
71.1%implied probability -1.3 points in 24h
$2.0M traded · $1.0M open interest · Kalshi · resolves
Human moon landing in 2026?
0.9%implied probability -0.1 points in 24h
$2.0M traded · $22K open interest · Polymarket · resolves
The biggest tech markets on the board by traded volume, browsing rather than a claim that they bear on this question. All tech markets → · See this market on the live board → · Markets moving now →