Austin vs Dallas Winner?
Austin — market-implied probability
1.0%▼ -32.0 points in 24h
No 99.0%
$899Klifetime volume
$895K24h volume
$536Kopen interest
Austin is trading at 1.0% on Kalshi, down 32.0 points in the last 24 hours. $899K traded over the market’s life, $895K of it in the last day. It resolves on 19 August 2026, 2 days from now.
By volume it is number 205 of the 655 open sports markets on the board, and $895K of that traded in the last day.
Current odds
| Austin | 1.0% | |
|---|---|---|
| No | 99.0% |
Prices are the market’s implied probability: a contract at 62% costs 62 cents and pays $1 if it resolves true.
Price history
Yes moved from 30.0% to 34.0% over the 9 days charted — 4.0 points higher, ranging between 30.0% and 35.0% on the way.
| Window open | 30.0% |
|---|---|
| Latest sample | 34.0% |
| Change over window | +4.0 points |
| Window high | 35.0% |
| Window low | 30.0% |
| Samples | 10, about every 24 hours |
Read off the samples the line is drawn from. A price moved; PredictionBubbles reports the move and does not determine what caused it. Points, not percent — a change from 20% to 25% is five points.
Sampled for Yes. The live board draws every outcome and lets you switch the window.
Market activity
$899KLifetime volume
traded over the market's life.
$895K24h volume
traded in the last day.
$536KOpen interest
still committed in open positions.
Where the venue does not publish a figure, it is left out rather than shown as zero.
Market timeline
opened
resolves
2 days remaining — recalculated on every 15-minute rebuild.
What does 1.0% mean?
The market is currently pricing the Austin outcome at about 1.0%: a contract that pays $1 if the market resolves that way costs roughly 1.0% of its payout to buy. That number is the market-implied probability — the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, not a forecast by PredictionBubbles.
When the price moves, the market has repriced the question — the 24-hour figure on this page is that move in probability points, not percent. Markets can be early, late or wrong; what keeps the number honest is that anyone who disagrees can trade against it.
Where this price comes from
- Source
- Kalshi
- Type
- CFTC-regulated, US
- Updated
- every 15 minutes
- Prices read
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange settling in dollars. The number above is the last traded price on this contract, pulled from the venue’s public API and refreshed every 15 minutes. This site takes no position and sets no price of its own.
To weigh it against the same question elsewhere, open the live board: it puts the busiest open Polymarket and Kalshi market side by side, sized by volume and colored by probability.
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