Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jan 1, 2028?
Before Jan 1, 2028 — market-implied probability
53.0%
No 47.0%
$10Klifetime volume
$4Kopen interest
Before Jan 1, 2028 is trading at 53.0% on Kalshi. $10K traded over the market’s life. It resolves on 1 January 2028, 506 days from now.
By volume it is number 43 of the 55 open other markets on the board.
Current odds
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 53.0% | |
|---|---|---|
| No | 47.0% |
Prices are the market’s implied probability: a contract at 62% costs 62 cents and pays $1 if it resolves true.
Price history
Hourly samples for Yes. The live board draws every outcome and lets you switch the window.
Market activity
$10KLifetime volume
traded over the market's life.
$4KOpen interest
still committed in open positions.
Where the venue does not publish a figure, it is left out rather than shown as zero.
Market timeline
3 March 2026opened
1 January 2028resolves
506 days remaining — recalculated on every 15-minute rebuild.
What does 53.0% mean?
The market is currently pricing the Before Jan 1, 2028 outcome at about 53.0%: a contract that pays $1 if the market resolves that way costs roughly 53.0% of its payout to buy. That number is the market-implied probability — the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, not a forecast by PredictionBubbles.
When the price moves, the market has repriced the question — the 24-hour figure on this page is that move in probability points, not percent. Markets can be early, late or wrong; what keeps the number honest is that anyone who disagrees can trade against it.
Where this price comes from
- Source
- Kalshi
- Type
- CFTC-regulated, US
- Updated
- every 15 minutes
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange settling in dollars. The number above is the last traded price on this contract, pulled from the venue’s public API and refreshed every 15 minutes. This site takes no position and sets no price of its own.
To weigh it against the same question elsewhere, open the live board: it puts the busiest open Polymarket and Kalshi market side by side, sized by volume and colored by probability.