Will there be at least 4500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
Yes — market-implied probability
26.0%
No 74.0%
$20lifetime volume
$2024h volume
$356liquidity
Yes is trading at 26.0% on Polymarket. $20 traded over the market’s life, $20 of it in the last day. It resolves on 31 December 2026, 141 days from now.
By volume it is number 23 of the 23 open climate markets on the board, and $20 of that traded in the last day.
Current odds
| Yes | 26.0% | |
|---|---|---|
| No | 74.0% |
Prices are the market’s implied probability: a contract at 62% costs 62 cents and pays $1 if it resolves true.
Market activity
$20Lifetime volume
traded over the market's life.
$2024h volume
traded in the last day.
$356Liquidity
resting on the order book.
Where the venue does not publish a figure, it is left out rather than shown as zero.
Market timeline
11 August 2026opened
31 December 2026resolves
141 days remaining — recalculated on every 15-minute rebuild.
What does 26.0% mean?
The market is currently pricing the Yes outcome at about 26.0%: a contract that pays $1 if the market resolves that way costs roughly 26.0% of its payout to buy. That number is the market-implied probability — the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, not a forecast by PredictionBubbles.
When the price moves, the market has repriced the question — the 24-hour figure on this page is that move in probability points, not percent. Markets can be early, late or wrong; what keeps the number honest is that anyone who disagrees can trade against it.
Where this price comes from
- Source
- Polymarket
- Type
- on-chain, Polygon
- Updated
- every 15 minutes
Polymarket is an on-chain venue settling in USDC on Polygon. The number above is the last traded price on this contract, pulled from the venue’s public API and refreshed every 15 minutes. This site takes no position and sets no price of its own.
To weigh it against the same question elsewhere, open the live board: it puts the busiest open Polymarket and Kalshi market side by side, sized by volume and colored by probability.