Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?
Yes — market-implied probability
58.5%▼ -1.0 points in 24h
No 41.5%
$152Klifetime volume
$2K24h volume
$70Kliquidity
Yes is trading at 58.5% on Polymarket, down 1.0 points in the last 24 hours. $152K traded over the market’s life, $2K of it in the last day.
By volume it is number 854 of the 941 open politics markets on the board, and $2K of that traded in the last day.
Current odds
| Yes | 58.5% | |
|---|---|---|
| No | 41.5% |
Prices are the market’s implied probability: a contract at 62% costs 62 cents and pays $1 if it resolves true.
Market activity
$152KLifetime volume
traded over the market's life.
$2K24h volume
traded in the last day.
$70KLiquidity
resting on the order book.
Where the venue does not publish a figure, it is left out rather than shown as zero.
Market timeline
13 October 2025opened
What does 58.5% mean?
The market is currently pricing the Yes outcome at about 58.5%: a contract that pays $1 if the market resolves that way costs roughly 58.5% of its payout to buy. That number is the market-implied probability — the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, not a forecast by PredictionBubbles.
When the price moves, the market has repriced the question — the 24-hour figure on this page is that move in probability points, not percent. Markets can be early, late or wrong; what keeps the number honest is that anyone who disagrees can trade against it.
Where this price comes from
- Source
- Polymarket
- Type
- on-chain, Polygon
- Updated
- every 15 minutes
Polymarket is an on-chain venue settling in USDC on Polygon. The number above is the last traded price on this contract, pulled from the venue’s public API and refreshed every 15 minutes. This site takes no position and sets no price of its own.
To weigh it against the same question elsewhere, open the live board: it puts the busiest open Polymarket and Kalshi market side by side, sized by volume and colored by probability.