Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026?
Yes — market-implied probability
33.0%
No 67.0%
$18lifetime volume
$1824h volume
$1Kliquidity
Yes is trading at 33.0% on Polymarket. $18 traded over the market’s life, $18 of it in the last day. It resolves on 30 September 2026, 49 days from now.
By volume it is number 935 of the 936 open politics markets on the board, and $18 of that traded in the last day.
Current odds
| Yes | 33.0% | |
|---|---|---|
| No | 67.0% |
Prices are the market’s implied probability: a contract at 62% costs 62 cents and pays $1 if it resolves true.
Market activity
$18Lifetime volume
traded over the market's life.
$1824h volume
traded in the last day.
$1KLiquidity
resting on the order book.
Where the venue does not publish a figure, it is left out rather than shown as zero.
Market timeline
11 August 2026opened
30 September 2026resolves
49 days remaining — recalculated on every 15-minute rebuild.
What does 33.0% mean?
The market is currently pricing the Yes outcome at about 33.0%: a contract that pays $1 if the market resolves that way costs roughly 33.0% of its payout to buy. That number is the market-implied probability — the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, not a forecast by PredictionBubbles.
When the price moves, the market has repriced the question — the 24-hour figure on this page is that move in probability points, not percent. Markets can be early, late or wrong; what keeps the number honest is that anyone who disagrees can trade against it.
Where this price comes from
- Source
- Polymarket
- Type
- on-chain, Polygon
- Updated
- every 15 minutes
Polymarket is an on-chain venue settling in USDC on Polygon. The number above is the last traded price on this contract, pulled from the venue’s public API and refreshed every 15 minutes. This site takes no position and sets no price of its own.
To weigh it against the same question elsewhere, open the live board: it puts the busiest open Polymarket and Kalshi market side by side, sized by volume and colored by probability.