Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026?
Yes — market-implied probability
3.5%▼ -0.9 points in 24h
No 96.5%
$117Klifetime volume
$6K24h volume
$22Kliquidity
Yes is trading at 3.5% on Polymarket, down 0.9 points in the last 24 hours. $117K traded over the market’s life, $6K of it in the last day. It resolves on 21 August 2026, 9 days from now.
By volume it is number 36 of the 39 open tech markets on the board, and $6K of that traded in the last day.
Current odds
| Yes | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|
| No | 96.5% |
Prices are the market’s implied probability: a contract at 62% costs 62 cents and pays $1 if it resolves true.
Price history
Hourly samples for Yes. The live board draws every outcome and lets you switch the window.
Market activity
$117KLifetime volume
traded over the market's life.
$6K24h volume
traded in the last day.
$22KLiquidity
resting on the order book.
Where the venue does not publish a figure, it is left out rather than shown as zero.
Market timeline
9 July 2026opened
21 August 2026resolves
9 days remaining — recalculated on every 15-minute rebuild.
What does 3.5% mean?
The market is currently pricing the Yes outcome at about 3.5%: a contract that pays $1 if the market resolves that way costs roughly 3.5% of its payout to buy. That number is the market-implied probability — the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, not a forecast by PredictionBubbles.
When the price moves, the market has repriced the question — the 24-hour figure on this page is that move in probability points, not percent. Markets can be early, late or wrong; what keeps the number honest is that anyone who disagrees can trade against it.
Where this price comes from
- Source
- Polymarket
- Type
- on-chain, Polygon
- Updated
- every 15 minutes
Polymarket is an on-chain venue settling in USDC on Polygon. The number above is the last traded price on this contract, pulled from the venue’s public API and refreshed every 15 minutes. This site takes no position and sets no price of its own.
To weigh it against the same question elsewhere, open the live board: it puts the busiest open Polymarket and Kalshi market side by side, sized by volume and colored by probability.