PredictionBubbles
Polymarket · SportsOpen

UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)

Islam Makhachev — market-implied probability

75.5%

Ian Machado Garry 24.5%

$312Klifetime volume

$110K24h volume

$170Kliquidity

Islam Makhachev is trading at 75.5% on Polymarket. $312K traded over the market’s life, $110K of it in the last day. It resolves on 16 August 2026, 4 days from now.

By volume it is number 469 of the 685 open sports markets on the board, and $110K of that traded in the last day.

Trade this on Polymarket ↗

Current odds

Islam Makhachev75.5%
Ian Machado Garry24.5%

Prices are the market’s implied probability: a contract at 62% costs 62 cents and pays $1 if it resolves true.

Market activity

$312KLifetime volume

traded over the market's life.

$110K24h volume

traded in the last day.

$170KLiquidity

resting on the order book.

Where the venue does not publish a figure, it is left out rather than shown as zero.

Market timeline

1 August 2026opened

16 August 2026resolves

4 days remaining — recalculated on every 15-minute rebuild.

What does 75.5% mean?

The market is currently pricing the Islam Makhachev outcome at about 75.5%: a contract that pays $1 if the market resolves that way costs roughly 75.5% of its payout to buy. That number is the market-implied probability — the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, not a forecast by PredictionBubbles.

When the price moves, the market has repriced the question — the 24-hour figure on this page is that move in probability points, not percent. Markets can be early, late or wrong; what keeps the number honest is that anyone who disagrees can trade against it.

Where this price comes from

Source
Polymarket
Type
on-chain, Polygon
Updated
every 15 minutes

Polymarket is an on-chain venue settling in USDC on Polygon. The number above is the last traded price on this contract, pulled from the venue’s public API and refreshed every 15 minutes. This site takes no position and sets no price of its own.

To weigh it against the same question elsewhere, open the live board: it puts the busiest open Polymarket and Kalshi market side by side, sized by volume and colored by probability.