Will Lorenzo Carboni win the Michalski vs Carboni: Round Of 32 match?
Lorenzo Carboni — market-implied probability
46.0%
No 54.0%
$3Klifetime volume
$3K24h volume
$3Kopen interest
Lorenzo Carboni is trading at 46.0% on Kalshi. $3K traded over the market’s life, $3K of it in the last day. It resolves on 25 August 2026, 14 days from now.
By volume it is number 615 of the 654 open sports markets on the board, and $3K of that traded in the last day.
Current odds
| Lorenzo Carboni | 46.0% | |
|---|---|---|
| No | 54.0% |
Prices are the market’s implied probability: a contract at 62% costs 62 cents and pays $1 if it resolves true.
Market activity
$3KLifetime volume
traded over the market's life.
$3K24h volume
traded in the last day.
$3KOpen interest
still committed in open positions.
Where the venue does not publish a figure, it is left out rather than shown as zero.
Market timeline
11 August 2026opened
25 August 2026resolves
14 days remaining — recalculated on every 15-minute rebuild.
What does 46.0% mean?
The market is currently pricing the Lorenzo Carboni outcome at about 46.0%: a contract that pays $1 if the market resolves that way costs roughly 46.0% of its payout to buy. That number is the market-implied probability — the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, not a forecast by PredictionBubbles.
When the price moves, the market has repriced the question — the 24-hour figure on this page is that move in probability points, not percent. Markets can be early, late or wrong; what keeps the number honest is that anyone who disagrees can trade against it.
Where this price comes from
- Source
- Kalshi
- Type
- CFTC-regulated, US
- Updated
- every 15 minutes
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange settling in dollars. The number above is the last traded price on this contract, pulled from the venue’s public API and refreshed every 15 minutes. This site takes no position and sets no price of its own.
To weigh it against the same question elsewhere, open the live board: it puts the busiest open Polymarket and Kalshi market side by side, sized by volume and colored by probability.