Will Daniel Merida win the Merida vs Tien: Quarterfinal match?
Daniel Merida — market-implied probability
7.0%▼ -28.0 points in 24h
No 93.0%
$966Klifetime volume
$859K24h volume
$640Kopen interest
Daniel Merida is trading at 7.0% on Kalshi, down 28.0 points in the last 24 hours. $966K traded over the market’s life, $859K of it in the last day. It resolves on 24 August 2026, 12 days from now.
By volume it is number 195 of the 685 open sports markets on the board, and $859K of that traded in the last day.
Current odds
| Daniel Merida | 7.0% | |
|---|---|---|
| No | 93.0% |
Prices are the market’s implied probability: a contract at 62% costs 62 cents and pays $1 if it resolves true.
Price history
Hourly samples for Yes. The live board draws every outcome and lets you switch the window.
Market activity
$966KLifetime volume
traded over the market's life.
$859K24h volume
traded in the last day.
$640KOpen interest
still committed in open positions.
Where the venue does not publish a figure, it is left out rather than shown as zero.
Market timeline
9 August 2026opened
24 August 2026resolves
12 days remaining — recalculated on every 15-minute rebuild.
What does 7.0% mean?
The market is currently pricing the Daniel Merida outcome at about 7.0%: a contract that pays $1 if the market resolves that way costs roughly 7.0% of its payout to buy. That number is the market-implied probability — the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, not a forecast by PredictionBubbles.
When the price moves, the market has repriced the question — the 24-hour figure on this page is that move in probability points, not percent. Markets can be early, late or wrong; what keeps the number honest is that anyone who disagrees can trade against it.
Where this price comes from
- Source
- Kalshi
- Type
- CFTC-regulated, US
- Updated
- every 15 minutes
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange settling in dollars. The number above is the last traded price on this contract, pulled from the venue’s public API and refreshed every 15 minutes. This site takes no position and sets no price of its own.
To weigh it against the same question elsewhere, open the live board: it puts the busiest open Polymarket and Kalshi market side by side, sized by volume and colored by probability.