Will Andy Burnham announce their departure as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jul 1, 2027?
Before Jul 1, 2027 — market-implied probability
9.0%
No 91.0%
$5Klifetime volume
$3Kopen interest
Before Jul 1, 2027 is trading at 9.0% on Kalshi. $5K traded over the market’s life. It resolves on 1 July 2027, 323 days from now.
By volume it is number 921 of the 922 open politics markets on the board.
Current odds
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 9.0% | |
|---|---|---|
| No | 91.0% |
Prices are the market’s implied probability: a contract at 62% costs 62 cents and pays $1 if it resolves true.
Price history
Hourly samples for Yes. The live board draws every outcome and lets you switch the window.
Market activity
$5KLifetime volume
traded over the market's life.
$3KOpen interest
still committed in open positions.
Where the venue does not publish a figure, it is left out rather than shown as zero.
Market timeline
20 July 2026opened
1 July 2027resolves
323 days remaining — recalculated on every 15-minute rebuild.
What does 9.0% mean?
The market is currently pricing the Before Jul 1, 2027 outcome at about 9.0%: a contract that pays $1 if the market resolves that way costs roughly 9.0% of its payout to buy. That number is the market-implied probability — the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, not a forecast by PredictionBubbles.
When the price moves, the market has repriced the question — the 24-hour figure on this page is that move in probability points, not percent. Markets can be early, late or wrong; what keeps the number honest is that anyone who disagrees can trade against it.
Where this price comes from
- Source
- Kalshi
- Type
- CFTC-regulated, US
- Updated
- every 15 minutes
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange settling in dollars. The number above is the last traded price on this contract, pulled from the venue’s public API and refreshed every 15 minutes. This site takes no position and sets no price of its own.
To weigh it against the same question elsewhere, open the live board: it puts the busiest open Polymarket and Kalshi market side by side, sized by volume and colored by probability.