Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
Yes is trading at 46.0% on Polymarket, up 3.0 points in the last 24 hours. $187K traded over the market’s life, $97 of it in the last day. It resolves on 31 December 2026, 145 days from now.
By volume it is number 20 of the 25 open climate markets on the board, and $97 of that traded in the last day.
Trade this on Polymarket ↗Current odds
| Yes | 46.0% | |
|---|---|---|
| No | 54.0% |
Prices are the market’s implied probability: a contract at 62% costs 62 cents and pays $1 if it resolves true.
Price history
Hourly samples for Yes. The live board draws every outcome and lets you switch the window.
Market detail
- Lifetime volume
- $187K
- 24h volume
- $97
- 24h move
- +3.0 points
- Liquidity
- $2K
- Open interest
- —
- Opened
- 31 December 2025
- Resolves
- 31 December 2026
- Venue
- Polymarket · on-chain, Polygon
Where this price comes from
Polymarket is an on-chain venue settling in USDC on Polygon. The number above is the last traded price on this contract, pulled from the venue’s public API and refreshed every 15 minutes. This site takes no position and sets no price of its own.
To weigh it against the same question elsewhere, open the live board: it puts the busiest open Polymarket and Kalshi market side by side, sized by volume and colored by probability.
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