PredictionBubbles
Polymarket · Politics

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?

Yes is trading at 4.5% on Polymarket. $235K traded over the market’s life, $128 of it in the last day. It was scheduled to resolve on 31 March 2026.

By volume it is number 756 of the 833 open politics markets on the board, and $128 of that traded in the last day.

Its scheduled resolution date passed 129 days ago. Polymarket still lists it as open, so the price above is current, but the question may be waiting on settlement.

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Current odds

Yes4.5%
No95.5%

Prices are the market’s implied probability: a contract at 62% costs 62 cents and pays $1 if it resolves true.

Price history

5 Jul3.3% – 6.7%7 Aug

Hourly samples for Yes. The live board draws every outcome and lets you switch the window.

Market detail

Lifetime volume
$235K
24h volume
$128
24h move
—
Liquidity
$52K
Open interest
—
Opened
4 January 2026
Resolves
31 March 2026
Venue
Polymarket · on-chain, Polygon

Where this price comes from

Polymarket is an on-chain venue settling in USDC on Polygon. The number above is the last traded price on this contract, pulled from the venue’s public API and refreshed every 15 minutes. This site takes no position and sets no price of its own.

To weigh it against the same question elsewhere, open the live board: it puts the busiest open Polymarket and Kalshi market side by side, sized by volume and colored by probability.

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