PredictionBubbles
Polymarket · Politics

Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?

Yes is trading at 6.0% on Polymarket. $225K traded over the market’s life, $980 of it in the last day. It was scheduled to resolve on 31 December 2025.

By volume it is number 769 of the 833 open politics markets on the board, and $980 of that traded in the last day.

Its scheduled resolution date passed 219 days ago. Polymarket still lists it as open, so the price above is current, but the question may be waiting on settlement.

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Current odds

Yes6.0%
No94.0%

Prices are the market’s implied probability: a contract at 62% costs 62 cents and pays $1 if it resolves true.

Price history

5 Jul4.3% – 10.2%7 Aug

Hourly samples for Yes. The live board draws every outcome and lets you switch the window.

Market detail

Lifetime volume
$225K
24h volume
$980
24h move
—
Liquidity
$59K
Open interest
—
Opened
30 June 2026
Resolves
31 December 2025
Venue
Polymarket · on-chain, Polygon

Where this price comes from

Polymarket is an on-chain venue settling in USDC on Polygon. The number above is the last traded price on this contract, pulled from the venue’s public API and refreshed every 15 minutes. This site takes no position and sets no price of its own.

To weigh it against the same question elsewhere, open the live board: it puts the busiest open Polymarket and Kalshi market side by side, sized by volume and colored by probability.

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